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Young adults are disproportionally affected by mental illnesses (MIs) and often encounter numerous obstacles to accessing healthcare. Untreated MIs have high chronicity and recurrence and are associated with worse health and life outcomes. The aim of the study described in this protocol is to characterize and better understand the barriers and facilitators to accessing mental healthcare for young adults with mental health-related disabilities (YMHDs), focusing on the impact of functional impairment, determinants of health, and unmet healthcare needs. The study protocol, guided by critical realism, uses a patient-oriented sequential mixed-methods design and involves patient research partners (PRPs) to ensure the voices and perspectives of those directly impacted are central to the research process. This study includes a quantitative analysis of secondary data from the Canadian Community Health Survey and a qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews with YMHDs. The data will be integrated by themes-by-statistics joint display. The study protocol follows the Tri-Agency Statement of Principles for data collection, storage, retention, sharing, and analysis, adheres to ethical guidelines to ensure participant confidentiality and informed consent, and has received institutional ethics approvals. This study will provide valuable insights into factors that act as barriers or facilitators to accessing care and inform the development of targeted interventions to improve access and support for YMHDs. This study has several strengths, including a participatory research approach that involves PRPs and other relevant stakeholders in the research process, a targeted focus on a specific age group, and the use of mixed-methods research and critical realism. This protocol describes a study that will inform policy, service delivery, and treatment options. This study has the potential to drive systemic change and significantly improve the lives and health of young people with mental health needs.

Background: Environmental research on mental health primarily originates from high-income countries, while information about the rest of the world remains limited. Aims: This study examined: (1) the available published research evidence regarding the association between neighborhood-level deprivation and indicators of mental health and illness in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and (2) the gaps in the relevant research in LMIC settings that should be addressed in future studies. Method: First, we systematically searched for relevant primary studies in electronic databases (Ovid Medline, Scopus, Socindex, and PsycINFO) and citations in the reference lists. Then, a two-stage screening procedure was employed to select the relevant studies by screening the titles and abstracts and reviewing the selected full texts by independent researchers. After charting the data from the selected study reports, we collated, summarized, and discussed the results. Results: We retrieved 51 studies across 19 LMICs, with only one study originating from a low-income country. Most studies focused on adult mental health topics and few explored children's mental health. Notably, a significant majority of these studies ( N = 37) reported a positive association between neighborhood deprivation and mental health/disorder. However, the research methods used varied significantly, and there were several methodological limitations. Conclusions: This review highlights the need for more original studies in LMICs on the association between neighborhood deprivation and mental health, employing stronger methodologies.

BackgroundExisting association between mental disorders and suicidality is mostly based on cross- sectional studies, using clinical samples.
Objective and methodsWe examined the patterns of association between mental disorders and subsequent suicide in a representative sample of the Canadian household population. This is a retrospective cohort study that used data from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2002 linked to the Death Database 2000-2011 and the Hospitalization Database 1999/2000-2012/2013) (N=27,000). Mental disorders (past-year major depressive episodes (MDE), bipolar disorders (BPD), anxiety disorders (AD), and substance-dependent (SD)) were diagnosed in the survey data using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Subsequent suicide events (deaths/hospitalizations for suicide attempts) were identified using ICD-10-CA codes. Time-to-event data were analyzed using competing-risk regression models, adjusting for age, sex, marital status, and educational attainment. Due to the violation of the proportional hazard assumption, the models were stratified into two strata. Sampling weights were used to ensure representation of the target population.
ResultsOf 27,000 respondents, mental disorders were diagnosed in 15.0% respondents and 0.4% had suicide events. Each mental disorder was significantly associated with an increased risk of suicide. The strength of association between mental disorder and suicide weakened over-time for MDE, SD, but not for BPD and AD. For example, using the time-to-event cut-off 4-year, the hazard ratio (HR) for MDE was 6.02 (95% CI=2.65,13.68) in the first 4-year, whereas, it was 2.03 (95% CI=0.91,4.53) after 4-year. The HRs of suicide for BPD were 16.95 (95% CI=6.88,41.75) and 15.81 (95% CI=5.89,42.45) before and after 4-year.
Conclusions/ImplicationsFindings reflect improvement of suicide-risk over-time for people with MDE and SA and the persisting risk for people with BPD and AD. Our findings underscore the importance of early management of mental disorders for effective suicide prevention, and requirement of longer-term follow-up for people with BPD and AD.

Schizophrenia does not present uniformly among patients and as a result this patient population is characterized by a diversity in the type and amount of healthcare supports needed for daily functioning. Despite this, little work has been completed to understand the heterogeneity that exists among these patients. In this work we used a data-driven approach to identify subgroups of high-cost patients with schizophrenia to identify potentially actionable interventions for the improvement of outcomes and to inform conversations on how to most efficiently allocate resources in an already strained system. Administrative health data was used to conduct a retrospective analysis of "high-cost" adult patients with schizophrenia residing in Alberta, Canada in 2017. Costs were derived from inpatient encounters, outpatient primary care and specialist encounters, emergency department encounters, and drug costs. Latent class analysis was used to group patients based on their unique clinical profiles. Latent class analysis of 1659 patients revealed the following patient groups: (1) young, high-needs males early in their disease course; (2) actively managed middle-aged patients; (3) elderly patients with multiple chronic conditions and polypharmacy; (4) unstably housed males with low treatment rates; (5) unstably housed females with high acute care use and low treatment rates. This taxonomy may be used to inform policy, including the identification of interventions most likely to improve care and reduce health spending for each subgroup.

Data pooling from pre-existing multiple datasets can be useful to increase study sample size and statistical power to answer a research question. However, individual datasets may contain variables that measure the same construct differently, posing challenges for data pooling. Variable harmonization, an approach that can generate comparable datasets from heterogeneous sources, can address this issue in some circumstances. As an illustrative example, this paper describes the data harmonization strategies that helped generate comparable datasets across two Canadian pregnancy cohort studies– the All Our Families and the Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition.
Variables were harmonized considering multiple features across the datasets: the construct measured; question asked/response options; the measurement scale used; the frequency of measurement; timing of measurement, and the data structure. Completely matching, partially matching, and completely un-matching variables across the datasets were determined based on these features. Variables that were an exact match were pooled as is. Partially matching variables were synchronized across the datasets considering the frequency of measurement, the timing of measurement, and response options. Variables that were completely unmatching could not be harmonized into a single variable.
The variable harmonization strategies that were used to generate comparable cohort datasets for data pooling are applicable to other data sources. Future studies may employ or evaluate these strategies. Variable harmonization and pooling provide an opportunity to increase study power and the utility of existing data, permitting researchers to answer novel research questions in a statistically efficient, timely, and cost-efficient manner that could not be achieved using a single data source.

OBJECTIVES: The present report is the first study of Canadian military personnel to use longitudinal survey data to identify factors that determine major depressive episodes (MDEs) over a period of 16 years. METHODS: The study used data from the Canadian Armed Forces Members and Veterans Mental Health Follow-up Survey (CAFVMHS) collected in 2018 (n = 2,941, response rate 68.7%) and linked baseline data from the same participants that were collected in 2002 when they were Canadian Regular Force members. The study used structured interviews to identify 5 common Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition mental disorders and collected demographic data, as well as information about traumatic experiences, childhood adversities, work stress, and potential resilience factors. Respondents were divided into 4 possible MDE courses: No Disorder, Remitting, New Onset, and Persistent/Recurrent. Relative risk ratios (RRRs) from multinomial regression models were used to evaluate determinants of these outcomes. RESULTS: A history of anxiety disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder (RRRs: 1.50 to 20.55), mental health service utilization (RRRs: 1.70 to 12.34), veteran status (RRRs: 1.64 to 2.15), deployment-associated traumatic events (RRRs: 1.71 to 2.27), sexual traumas (RRRs: 1.91 to 2.93), other traumas (RRRs: 1.67 to 2.64), childhood adversities (RRRs: 1.39 to 1.97), avoidance coping (RRRs 1.09 to 1.49), higher frequency of religious attendance (RRRs: 1.54 to 1.61), and work stress (RRRs: 1.05 to 1.10) were associated with MDE courses in most analyses. Problem-focused coping (RRRs: 0.73 to 0.91) and social support (RRRs: 0.95 to 0.98) were associated with protection against MDEs. CONCLUSIONS: The time periods following deployment and trauma exposure and during the transition from active duty to veteran status are particularly relevant for vulnerability to depression in military members. Interventions that enhance problem-focused coping and social support may be protective against MDEs in ...

Objectives: Depression symptom questionnaires are not for diagnostic classification. Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scores >= 10 are nonetheless often used to estimate depression prevalence. We compared PHQ-9 >= 10 prevalence to Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (SCID) major depression prevalence and assessed whether an alternative PHQ-9 cutoff could more accurately estimate prevalence. Study Design and Setting: Individual participant data meta-analysis of datasets comparing PHQ-9 scores to SCID major depression status. Results: A total of 9,242 participants (1,389 SCID major depression cases) from 44 primary studies were included. Pooled PHQ-9 >= 10 prevalence was 24.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.8%, 28.9%); pooled SCID major depression prevalence was 12.1% (95% CI: 9.6%, 15.2%); and pooled difference was 11.9% (95% CI: 9.3%, 14.6%). The mean study-level PHQ-9 >= 10 to SCID-based prevalence ratio was 2.5 times. PHQ-9 >= 14 and the PHQ-9 diagnostic algorithm provided prevalence closest to SCID major depression prevalence, but study-level prevalence differed from SCID-based prevalence by an average absolute difference of 4.8% for PHQ-9 >= 14 (95% prediction interval: -13.6%, 14.5%) and 5.6% for the PHQ-9 diagnostic algorithm (95% prediction interval: -16.4%, 15.0%). Conclusion: PHQ-9 >= 10 substantially overestimates depression prevalence. There is too much heterogeneity to correct statistically in individual studies. ; Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) KRS-134297 PCG155468 PJT-162206 Fonds de recherche du Quebec -Sante (FRQS) Postdoctoral Training Fellowships FRQS Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre G.R. Caverhill Fellowship from the Faculty of Medicine, McGill University Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary Alberta Health Services through the Calgary Health Trust Hotchkiss Brain Institute Alberta Innovates Health Solutions Canada Research Chair in Neurological Health Services Research AIHS Population Health Investigator Award Department of Education (NIDRR) H133B080025 National Multiple Sclerosis Society MB 0008 Lundbeck International Tehran University of Medical Sciences M-288 Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) THC-135234 Crohn's and Colitis Canada Bingham Chair in Gastroenterology Waugh Family Chair in Multiple Sclerosis UK Department for International Development 201446 Department of Education, National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research, Spinal Cord Injury Model Systems: University of Washington H133N060033 Baylor College of Medicine H133N060003 University of Michigan System H133N060032 Grand Challenges Canada 0087-04 United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) R24MH071604 R34 MH072925 K02 MH65919 P30 DK50456 R24 MH56858 RO1-MH069666 R24 MH071604 MH014592-38 MH103210 United States Department of Health & Human Services Centers for Disease Control & Prevention - USA R49 CE002093 Spanish Ministry of Health's Health Research Fund (Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias) 97/1184 US National Center for Medical Rehabilitation Research RO1 HD39415 Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) 01GY1150 University of Technology Sydney Duke Global Health Institute 453-0751 Macao (SAR) Government, through the University of Macau RSKTO grants MYRG-2014-111 United States Agency for International Development (USAID) AID-DFD A-00-08-00308 UK National Institute for Health Research under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme RP-PG0606-1142 Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACyT) CB-2009133923-H National Health Research Institutes - Taiwan NHRI-EX97-9706PI Reitoria de Pesquisa da Universidade de Sao Paulo 09.1.01689.17.7 Banco Santander 10.1.01232.17.9 Pfizer medical faculty of the University of Heidelberg, Germany 121/2000 Research Manitoba Chair in Multiple Sclerosis Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Niigata Seiryo University Productivity Grants (PQ-CNPq-2) 301321/2016-7 Ministry of Health, Italy United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Cancer Institute (NCI) U10CA21661 U10CA180868 U10CA180822 U10CA37422 Pennsylvania Department of Health United Kingdom National Health Service Lothian Neuro-Oncology Endowment Fund United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Cancer Institute (NCI) K07 CA 093512 Lance Armstrong Foundation United States Department of Health & Human Services United States Health Resources & Service Administration (HRSA) R40MC07840 United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA T32 GM07356 United States Department of Health & Human Services Agency for Healthcare Research & Quality R36 HS018246 United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Center for Research Resources (NCRR) TL1 RR024135 medical faculty, University of Leipzig Hunter Medical Research Institute Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) Mental Health Program 100.003.005 100.002.021 Academic Medical Center/University of Amsterdam Fund for Innovation and Competitiveness of the Chilean Ministry of Economy, Development and Tourism, through the Millennium Scientific Initiative IS130005 Research Manitoba Chair

Researchers increasingly use meta-analysis to synthesize the results of several studies in order to estimate a common effect. When the outcome variable is continuous, standard meta-analytic approaches assume that the primary studies report the sample mean and standard deviation of the outcome. However, when the outcome is skewed, authors sometimes summarize the data by reporting the sample median and one or both of (i) the minimum and maximum values and (ii) the first and third quartiles, but do not report the mean or standard deviation. To include these studies in meta-analysis, several methods have been developed to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation from the reported summary data. A major limitation of these widely used methods is that they assume that the outcome distribution is normal, which is unlikely to be tenable for studies reporting medians. We propose two novel approaches to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation when data are suspected to be non-normal. Our simulation results and empirical assessments show that the proposed methods often perform better than the existing methods when applied to non-normal data. ; anadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) KRS-134297 Fonds de recherche du Quebec -Sante (FRQS) Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) FRQS Masters Training Awards Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship FRQS Postdoctoral Training Fellowship Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre G.R. Caverhill Fellowship from the Faculty of Medicine, McGill University Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary Alberta Health Services through the Calgary Health Trust Hotchkiss Brain Institute Senior Health Scholar award from Alberta Innovates Health Solutions Health Research Council of New Zealand Lundbeck International Tehran University of Medical Sciences M-288 Department of Education, National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research, Spinal Cord Injury Model Systems: University of Washington H133N060033 Baylor College of Medicine H133N060003 University of Michigan System H133N060032 National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia 1002160 Safe Work Australia Australian Research Council FT130101444 European Foundation for Study of Diabetes Chinese Diabetes Society Lilly Foundation Asia Diabetes Foundation Liao Wun Yuk Diabetes Memorial Fund United States National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) grant 5F30MH096664 United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH Fogarty International Center (FIC) United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA National Cancer Center United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Heart Lung & Blood Institute (NHLBI) NIH Office of Research for Women's Health through the Fogarty Global Health Fellows Program Consortium 1R25TW00934001 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) R24MH071604 / R34 MH072925/ K02 MH65919 / P30 DK50456 / R24 MH56858 / RO1 MH073687 /RO1-MH069666 / R34MH084673 /R24 MH071604 United States Department of Health & Human Services Centers for Disease Control & Prevention - USA R49 CE002093 St Anne's Community Services, Leeds, UK US National Center for Medical Rehabilitation Research RO1 HD39415 Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) 01GY1150 United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA T37 MD001449 / T32 GM07356 Ohio Board of Regents Research and Development Administration Office, University of Macau MYRG2015-00109-FSS Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) 01 GD 9802/4 ; 01 GD 0101 Federation of German Pension Insurance Institute Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) Perpetual Trustees Flora and Frank Leith Charitable Trust Jack Brockhoff Foundation Grosvenor Settlement Sunshine Foundation Danks Trust Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) FRN 83518 Scleroderma Society of Canada Scleroderma Society of Ontario Scleroderma Society of Saskatchewan Sclerodermie Quebec Cure Scleroderma Foundation Inova Diagnostics Inc Euroimmun FRQS Canadian Arthritis Network Lady Davis Institute of Medical Research of the Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, QC FRQS Senior Investigator Award National Strategic Reference Framework European Union (EU) Greek Ministry of Education, Lifelong Learning and Religious Affairs (ARISTEIA-ABREVIATE) 1259 Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan UK National Institute for Health Research under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme RP-PG-0606-1142 Canada Research Chair in Neurological Health Services Research AIHS Population Health Investigator Award National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia 1088313 Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development 945-03-047 National Health Research Institutes - Taiwan NHRI-EX97-9706PI Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand 49086 Reitoria de Pesquisa da Universidade de Sao Paulo 09.1.01689.17.7 Banco Santander 10.1.01232.17.9 Pfizer medical faculty of the University of Heidelberg, Germany 121/2000 Research University Grant Scheme from Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia Postgraduate Research Student Support Accounts of the University of Auckland, New Zealand National Program for Centers of Excellence (PRONEX/FAPERGS/CNPq, Brazil) Pfizer US Pharmaceutical Inc. PQ-CNPq-2 301321/2016-7 Belgian Ministry of Public Health and Social Affairs Pfizer Ministry of Health, Italy UK National Health Service Lothian Neuro-Oncology Endowment Fund Universiti Sains Malaysia United States Department of Health & Human Services United States Health Resources & Service Administration (HRSA) R40MC07840 United States Department of Health & Human Services Agency for Healthcare Research & Quality R36 HS018246 United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Center for Research Resources (NCRR) TL1 RR024135 University of Melbourne Hunter Medical Research Institute Innovatiefonds Zorgverzekeraars Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw) Mental Health Program 100.003.005 100.002.021 Academic Medical Center/University of Amsterdam Fund for Innovation and Competitiveness of the Chilean Ministry of Economy, Development and Tourism, through the Millennium Scientific Initiative IS130005 US Department of Veteran Affairs US Department of Veteran Affairs United States Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA NIH National Heart Lung & Blood Institute (NHLBI) R01 HL079235 American Federation for Ageing Research Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) Ischemia Research and Education Foundation

IMPORTANCE The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. OBJECTIVE To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged < 5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. EVIDENCE REVIEW Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. FINDINGS Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. ; Funding: We thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015 in various capacities. We specifically thank Jeffrey Eaton and John Stover. HW and CJLM received funding for this study from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01MH110163); and the National Institute on Aging, NIH (P30AG047845). LJAR acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 04-924-3-251) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation effort. BPAQ acknowledges institutional support from PRONABEC (National Program of Scholarship and Educational Loan), provided by the Peruvian government. DB is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1068048). JDN was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (grant number 099876). TF received financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF; project number P300P3-154634). AG acknowledges funding from Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panama-SNI. PJ is supported by Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance Clinical and Public Health Intermediate Fellowship. MK receives research support from the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council, Alzheimerfonden, Alzheimer's Research & Prevention Foundation, Center for Innovative Medicine (CIMED) at Karolinska Institutet South Campus, AXA Research Fund, Wallenberg Clinical Scholars Award from the Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Foundation, and the Sheika Salama Bint Hamdan Al Nahyan Foundation. AK's work was supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R&D&I and funded by the ISCIII (General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research), and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). SML is funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Fellowship (grant number NIHR/CS/010/014). HJL reports grants from the NIHR, EU Innovative Medicines Initiative, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, and WHO. WM is Program analyst, Population and Development, in the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund, which does not necessarily endorse this study. For UOM, funding from the German National Cohort Consortium (O1ER1511D) is gratefully acknowledged. KR reports grants from NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Career Development Fellowship, and Oxford Martin School during the conduct of the study. GR acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group supported by the International Society of Nephrology (ISN). ISS reports grants from FAPESP (Brazilian public agency). RSS receives institutional support from Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, UDCA, Bogota Colombia. SS receives postdoctoral funding from the Fonds de la recherche en sante du Quebec (FRSQ), including its renewal. RTS was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI14/00894 from ISCIII-FEDER. PY acknowledges support from Strategic Public Policy Research (HKU7003-SPPR-12).