Suchergebnisse

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) in liberalizing trade and investment through regional economic cooperation. We test whether the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) satisfies necessary conditions for a trade bloc to generate a positive and sufficient net trade creation effect by calculating trade-related indices introduced by the theory of economic integration. We find that ASEAN economies might not satisfy most of the conditions for creating positive welfare gains from AFTA. Moreover, in order to search for a desirable regional trade agreement (RTA) in the East Asian region, this study considers alternative strategies beyond AFTA, such as the currently implemented ASEAN hub (three sets of ASEAN+1: ASEAN+China, ASEAN+Japan, and ASEAN+Korea) RTA and a proposed ASEAN+3 (including ASEAN, China, Japan, and Korea) RTA. Although the ASEAN hub RTA appears to be a better policy option for ASEAN, it is not necessarily desirable for the region when we consider the neighboring countries in Northeast Asia as spokes. Therefore, we propose that the ASEAN+3 RTA, covering 10 ASEAN member countries and the three Northeast Asian countries, is a more desirable RTA in East Asia.

Abstract.  We quantitatively evaluate the effects different paths have on East Asian Regional Trade Agreements (RTA), which include expansionary, duplicate and overlapping RTAs. By applying a computable general equilibrium model analysis, we find that the static effect of existing, proposed and negotiating East Asian RTAs on world and members' welfare is sufficiently positive. It will lead to non‐discriminatory global free trade, by triggering the domino effect of regionalism if the RTAs take an expansionary path by cooperating with each other, in contrast to competing to achieve the first mover advantage, or hub self‐interest.

Abstract.  We estimate the investment creation and diversion effects of RTAs by using an extended gravity equation focusing on domestic reform as a commitment device for RTA membership. As a case study, we estimate the impact of proposed East Asian RTAs on inward FDI. We find that: (i) reform creating RTA membership, larger market size, better skilled labour and lower trade costs all contribute positively and significantly to inward FDI; and (ii) most of the proposed East Asian RTAs promote intra‐bloc FDI. In particular, both South–North and North–North RTAs prove to be more preferable membership combinations to South–South RTAs in East Asia.

This paper empirically analyzes the effectiveness of the ASEAN–Korea Free Trade Area (AKFTA) focusing on the ex-post trade creation and diversion effects with controlling related intra-bloc and extra-bloc regional trade agreements (RTAs) and economic characteristics of interconnected economies. The quantitative analysis applies a gravity model regression analysis by specifying standard pooled ordinary least squares and fixed effects regression models. We observe that the AKFTA turned out to be more favorable for Korea in terms of trade balance with ASEAN. We find that the AKFTA is a desirable trade creating RTA strongly driven by intra-bloc export activities between members and does not divert but generates more export to and import from non-members. Thus, we strongly support that the AKFTA facilitates trade between intra-bloc members and their trade with extra-bloc non-members as well. Besides which, we find that the trade creation effects of the AKFTA are industry-specific and sector-specific. For the manufacturing industry, the trade creation effects of the AKFTA are generated by both intra-bloc and extra-bloc import activity but not from extra-bloc export activity. However, for the services industry, all the intra-bloc and extra-bloc export and import activities contribute to the trade creation effects. Interestingly, we find that the trade creation effects of the manufacturing industry are smaller than those of the services industry. Considering restrictive service schedules of specific commitments in the AKFTA agreement on trade-in services compared to trade-in goods provisions, rearranging the trade-in services provisions is necessary to generate more trade gains in the future.

This article examines how the nature of work has changed since the 1997 financial crisis in South Korea. We demonstrate that a majority of workers now have become irregular workers, how peoples' perception of work has changed, and how the changing trends of work have impacted the quality of life.

Searching for evidence of Dutch disease in the Lao economy, we do find some of its symptoms, though they are not very strong. Accordingly, we propose some policy options to mitigate its effects and ensure the sustainable development of the Lao economy: (a) invest the revenues from the booming resource-intensive exports, foreign direct investment and official development assistance in infrastructure and education; (b) reduce import barriers against capital and equipment imports; (c) establish a natural resource fund and a foreign exchange equalisation fund; (d) actively participate in regional trade agreements for advanced technologies and domestic reform; (e) establish a comprehensive bank for efficient trade and investment activities. Above all, we strongly suggest public sector reform to increase transparency in governance.