Suchergebnisse

This paper provides evidence of integration in European equity and bond markets over the period January 2, 1997 to October 1, 2006. Our focus is to examine time-varying correlation dynamics in Euro-area, Central European (CE) and Balkan financial markets, modifying the asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlation (AG-DCC) model developed by Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard (Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2006). Using structural breaks, we identify the optimal time decay where financial markets share highest comovement. The results show an increase in the level of dependence during the period of the internet bubble collapse (2000), the Balkan countries start formally discussions to join European Union (2000), the introduction of Euro banknotes and coins (2002) and the entry of CE countries in EU (2004). The CE European and Balkan countries become gradually more integrated with the EMU countries, which is consistent with the interpretation that these countries may be expected to join the Euro in the future.

We build upon a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression (MSBVAR) model to study how the credit default swaps market in the euro area becomes an important chain in the propagation of shocks through the entire financial system. The study sheds light on the regime-dependent interconnectedness between the risk of investing in banking and public sector bonds and provides novel evidence that a rise in sovereign debt, due to the countercyclical fiscal policy measures, is perceived by stock market investors as a burden on growth prospects. We also document that government interventions in the banking sector deteriorate the credit risk of sovereign debt. Higher risk premium required by investors for holding riskier government bonds depresses the sovereign debt market, it impairs banks' balance sheets, and it depresses the collateral value of loans leading to bank retrenchment. The ensuing two-way banking-fiscal feedback loop indicates that government interventions do not necessarily stabilize the banking sector.

We use the theoretical framework of Acharya and Naqvi (2019) to introduce a macro-financial model where the "reaching for yield" incentivized by a loosening monetary policy in the United States mitigates the diabolic loop in a Monetary Union. We provide empirical evidence that the introduction of an accommodative monetary policy by the Fed lowers the yields in US assets and increases liquidity and, by extension, the threshold above which a liquidity shock can damage a bank. This, in turn, incentivizes bank managers to optimize their portfolios by investing in risky assets. We use a monetary VAR to provide novel empirical evidence that there is an increase in the flow of funds to European assets, a result which can be attributed to the "reaching-for-yield" incentive. This portfolio balance channel attenuates the effects of financial fragility and improves government funding costs as well as credit conditions by providing liquidity to domestic banks and assets. As a result, the "reaching-for-yield" incentive mitigates the diabolic loop effect.