Suchergebnisse

ABSTRACTBox and Jenkins [3] have specified a procedure for the development of a "transfer function model," a model which expresses the interrelationships between two time series. Involving the iterative repetition of identification, estimation, and checking stages, this procedure is comparable to their procedure for the development of an autoregressive‐intergrated‐moving average model for a single time series. The transfer function model development procedure has not been widely applied due to the absence of explanations understandable to the non‐statistician and reasonably priced computer algorithms.The intent of this paper is to provide the non‐statistician with an explanation of the identification stage of the Box‐Jenkins transfer function model development procedure. An extensive class of possible models is logically developed. The identification stage is specified step‐by‐step and is illustrated by three pairs of generated time series analyzed using computer algorithms written by the author. The paper presumes a general knowledge of the Box‐Jenkins identification procedure for single series models.

Four pillars of US influence in the world are identified: military strength, diplomatic/cultural influence, natural resource independence, & international trade competitiveness. Policies are offered that are designed to keep the first two pillars intact, & to reverse the erosion of the second two. Specifically, the strategy of "circumscribed engagement" is presented whereby the US would demarcate a zone of cooperation, (including the Western hemispheric bloc & a special interest area that includes Siberia, Oceania, & West/Central & Southern Africa) & a zone of competition (including Europe, the western USSR, the Far East, the Middle East, South Asia, etc) in the world. While policies toward the zone of cooperation are intended to strengthen economic & political ties between nations, policies toward the zone of competition reflect the need to maximize relative advantage while reducing financial, diplomatic, & military commitment. The adroit use of balance of power techniques to manage the external environment must be relearned. Involvement in the zone of competition must be extremely selective, & primarily limited to the temporary emplacement of "moving tripwires" on the basis of vital national interests. Military resources required to carry out such a strategy are considered. 2 Figures. Modified AA