Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?
In: Working paper series No. 192
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In: Working paper series No. 192
In: Working paper series 58
In: Working paper 67
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 21, Heft 4, S. 663-666
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Economic papers 215
In: European economy
In: Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1304
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In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9367
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In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15451
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In: Working paper 69
In: Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 2015
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In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14484
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Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as published/announced by the government; (ii) incoming, observed data on the actual degree of implementation of ongoing plans. We formulate and estimate empirical models for a number of EU countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) to show that government (consumption) targets convey useful information about ex-post policy developments when policy changes significantly (even if past credibility is low) and when there is limited information about the implementation of plans (e.g. at the beginning of a fiscal year). In addition, our models are instrumental to unveil the current course of policy in real-time. Our approach complements a well-established branch of the literature that finds politically-motivated biases in policy targets.
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In: Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1822
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In: International Economic Review, Band 59, Heft 4, S. 2297-2321
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