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SummaryIn this paper the tools are developed for forecasting and recruitment planning in a graded manpower system. Basic features of the presented approach are:‐ the system contains several grades or job categories in which the employees stay for a certain time before being promoted or leaving the system,‐ promotability and leaving rate for any employee depend on time spent in the job category and personal qualifications (like education, experience, age),‐ recruitment is not necessarily restricted to the lowest level in the system,‐ several planning aims and restrictions are allowed.The approach is based on a generalized Markov model for the dynamic behaviour of an individual employee. A forecasting procedure and a recruitment‐scheduling procedure are based on this Markov model.

AbstractFor semi‐Markov decision processes with discounted rewards we derive the well known results regarding the structure of optimal strategies (nonrandomized, stationary Markov strategies) and the standard algorithms (linear programming, policy iteration). Our analysis is completely based on a primal linear programming formulation of the problem.