Australian fur seals at Seal Rocks, Victoria: pup abundance by mark - recapture estimation shows continued increase
In: Wildlife research, Band 27, Heft 6, S. 629
ISSN: 1448-5494, 1035-3712
The abundance of Australian fur seal pups was determined at Seal Rocks,
Westernport, Victoria in late December 1997 using a mark–recapture
procedure with repeated recapture sessions. Pups (n
= 1291) were marked by clipping the black guard hair on the head to
reveal lighter underfur. Recaptures from the whole colony were made on eight
occasions 1–3 days later. In the recapture sessions, a mean of
32% of sighted pups had been marked. Estimates of pup numbers over the
eight recapture sessions were calculated using the Petersen estimate and then
combined by taking their arithmetic mean. The combined estimate was 4024
(95% confidence range 3908–4141). In 1991–92, a similar
procedure led to an estimate of pup numbers of 2817 (95% confidence
range 2703–2930). For both breeding seasons, estimates of pup numbers
from each recapture session were also combined assuming a joint hypergeometric
distribution; there was little difference in the results from the two
procedures, although the confidence intervals for the hypergeometric mean were
smaller than those for the arithmetic mean.
From 1991–92 to 1997–98, pup numbers increased by 43%, at
an exponential rate of 0.059 (95% confidence range
0.0526–0.0664), equivalent to 6.1% per annum
(5.4–6.9%). This is greater than the rate of increase of pups at
the colony between 1968–69 and 1991–92, which was 0.023
(95% confidence range 0.0198–0.0268), equivalent to 2.4%
per annum (2.0–2.7%).
Because of the rapid rate of increase of the Australian fur seal colony at
Seal Rocks and the importance of the locality for tourism, we recommend that
the abundance of pups there be determined every 3–5 years using a
mark–recapture technique.