Suchergebnisse

Dürre in Europa: In den letzten Jahrzehnten wurden ausgedehnte Regionen Europas wiederholt von Dürren heimgesucht, oftmals mit schwerwiegenden Auswirkungen auf Wirtschaft, Gesellschaft und Umwelt. Der Schweregrad dieser Auswirkungen hängt dabei nicht nur von der Intensität und Dauer der Dürre, sondern auch vom jeweiligen Schadenspotenzial und der Schadensanfälligkeit ab. Seit Mitte des 20. Jahrhunderts ist dabei ein Trend zu einer zunehmenden Dürrehäufigkeit und -intensität, vor allem in Südeuropa aber auch in Teilen von West-, Mittel- und Osteuropa festzustellen. Unter einem fortschreitenden Klimawandel wird sich dieser Trend bis zum Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts fortsetzen und zu einen zunehmenden Süd-Nord Gradienten führen. Neuere Gesetzesinitiativen zeugen von einem zunehmenden politischen und öffentlichen Bewusstsein für die Problematik und von einem langsamen Wechsel weg vom Katastrophenmanagement hin zu einem vorbeugenden Risikomanagement. Letzteres bedarf adäquater Überwachungs- und Vorhersageinstrumente, eines öffentlichen Bewusstseinswandels und der Einführung von gesetzlichen Regelungen und Praktiken zum Dürremanagement. Droughts in Europe: Europe was repeatedly affected by droughts of varying extent, duration and intensity with severe impacts on the economy, society and natural ecosystems. The severity of these impacts not only depends on the characteristics of the drought event, but also on the exposed assets, the economic and natural vulnerability of the affected regions and the coping capacity of societies. Over the second half of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century, a trend for an increase in drought frequency, duration and intensity is recognisable for various European regions, notably for the Mediterranean. The adverse effects of climate change will likely exacerbate this situation, leading to an increasing gradient from the more drought-prone southern regions to the less affected northern regions, without sparing Western and Central Europe. Recent political initiatives demonstrate a growing political and public awareness of the problem and try to promote a change of paradigm, away from the prevailing disaster management to a pro-active risk management. The latter entails the development of appropriate monitoring and forecasting systems, the promotion of a water-saving culture, and the implementation of drought policies and drought management plans across the European continent.

Abstract. Building on almost 10 years of expertise and operational application of the
Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), which is implemented within the European
Commission's European Drought Observatory (EDO) for the purposes of early
warning and monitoring of agricultural droughts in Europe, this paper
proposes a revised version of the index. The CDI conceptualizes drought as a
cascade process, where a precipitation shortage (WATCH stage) develops into
a soil water deficit (WARNING stage), which in turn leads to stress for
vegetation (ALERT stage). The main goal of the revised CDI proposed here is
to improve the indicator's performance for those events that are currently
not reliably represented, without altering either the modelling conceptual
framework or the required input datasets. This is achieved by means of two
main modifications: (a) use of the previously occurring CDI value to improve
the temporal consistency of the time series and (b) introduction of two
temporary classes – namely TEMPORARY RECOVERY for soil moisture and
vegetation greenness, respectively – to avoid brief discontinuities in a
stage. The efficacy of the modifications is tested by comparing the
performances of the revised and currently implemented versions of the
indicator for actual drought events in Europe during the last 20 years. The
revised CDI reliably reproduces the evolution of major droughts,
outperforming the current version of the indicator, especially for
long-lasting events, and reducing the overall temporal inconsistencies in
stage sequencing of about 70 %. Since the revised CDI does not need
supplementary input datasets, it is suitable for operational implementation
within the EDO drought monitoring system.

Abstract. Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies.
Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most
heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to
assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the
first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and
rainfed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rainfed systems separately
using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, using socioecological susceptibility and lack of coping-capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems displays a heterogeneous pattern at the global level, with higher risk for southeastern Europe as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.