Suchergebnisse

The article identifies trends in bank lending to companies and households in Ukraine and considers modeling and integrated mapping of demand and supply of bank loans using the methods of system dynamics. The article shows that by 2020 the main trends in the Ukrainian banking sector are: a) increased dynamics of return on capital (29.7%) and reduced dynamics of interest rates on deposits (6.6%) and loans (14.8%); b) growth of the dynamics of bank loans in general, including the following characteristics: the largest share of the bank loan portfolio is accounted for by loans to economic entities, while loans to households account for 21.9%; loans to households are growing faster compared to the growth rate of loans to businesses; in the sectoral context, the largest share in lending is accounted for by the trade sector; short-term consumer loans predominate in household lending (82%); half of the loan portfolio of commercial banks consists of short-term loans; the share of non-performing loans in the total volume of issued loans remains high (48.75%); c) the deposit portfolio is dominated by household deposits, but in the dynamics there is a tendency to decrease in their share. Based on the methods of system dynamics, the authors present a model that allows to trace the relationship between commercial banks and legal entities and individuals, as well as to forecast the amounts of bank loans in accordance with the demand for loans from businesses and households (weighted by the maximum value credit load) and supply of credit resources by commercial banks. From a practical point of view, characterization of trends in banking, modeling the interaction of major participants in bank lending and determining the volume of bank loans using methods of system dynamics will help identify the main factors influencing the supply and demand of bank credit resources at the current stage of development of Ukraine and predict future dynamics of lending.

The article considers the interrelation between the mechanisms of total control implementation and political trust formation in a totalitarian state with an emphasis on the goals and methods of shaping social awareness, which determines the features of the further transformation of the political regime. In particular, the expediency of interpreting the features of posttotalitarian consciousness as a factor in the formation of institutional trust in the process of democratization is argued. The relevance of the research question is determined by the fact that political trust is traditionally analyzed to explain public support for politicians or political institutions in a democratic or transitional regime. However, sometimes scholars ignore or even deny its role in supporting certain types of undemocratic authority. In this context, considering the general interpretation of totalitarianism as mass terror, as well as its broader understanding with the recognition of the monistic essence, the article proposes to shift the focus of attention to the controlling function of the state, realized through mass repressions, mass propaganda activities and the process of resocialization. Arguing that a totalitarian state requires a specific subjectivity from citizens in establishing such political control, the author proposes to consider the combination of violent coercion (external control) with political self-censorship (internal control) as a condition for its totality. Therefore, from a methodological point of view, the expediency of determing external control as a factor of the formation of political trust, and political self-censorship as a consequence of trust in totalitarian authority is argued. The article also substantiates that the government-supported inversion relationship between political and interpersonal trust is important for explaining the specifics of trust after the change of political regime in the state. Consequently, author proves that the so-called artificial formation of trust within the dictatorship plays a significant role in explaining post-totalitarian transformations. In particular, it determines the support of formal and informal political institutions in the context of democratization.