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In this paper, we study the role of price correction in estimating the impact of price subsidies and anti-poverty cash transfer schemes on poverty in Tunisia. Three types of price corrections are considered: (a) no corrections; (b) living standards deflated by spatial Laspeyres price indices; (c) living standards deflated by true price indices that are estimated from a quadratic almost ideal demand system. Distinguishing these corrections and using data from Tunisia, we study the effects of the price deflation and the demand system estimation on poverty and budget leakage estimates. These effects can intervene at two stages of the estimation: (1) the calculation of the transfer levels for each household from predicted living standards, and (2) the estimation of the post-transfer poverty or budget leakage statistics. Our results show that price correction, whatever its form, may have only limited role for the assessment of anti-poverty policy in Tunisia. Correcting or not for spatial price differences, or for consumption substitution does not modify the ranking of the studied transfer policies. This is at odd with other findings in the empirical literature that price differences may be important for poverty monitoring.

Abstract.  We introduce an analytical framework for welfare analysis that accounts for changes in the joint distribution of prices and incomes by using parametric formulae of poverty and inequality measures. We propose statistical indicators for the levels, variabilities and a statistical link of price indices and nominal living standards, which are consistent with a bivariate lognormal model. Our analysis provides intuitive insight about the social welfare impact of economic shocks affecting levels, variabilities, and correlation of prices and incomes. The roles of price and income variabilities for poverty and inequality are exhibited, with the possibility of several variation regimes. JEL classification: I32, O15, D31

We revisit fertility analysis in Tunisia by examining family interference in birth control through: woman's marriage age, post-marriage delay in the first use of contraception, past and current contraceptive use, and choice of the birth control methods. Using data from the 2001 PAP-FAM Tunisian survey, we find that the significant effects of covariates arise and vanish across stage-specific equations as women progress in their lifecycle. In Tunisia, family links and socio-cultural environment appear to greatly shape fertility regulation in the direction of higher fertility. This calls for more intensive involvement of the extended families in family planning policies. This also suggests that the resurgence of traditionalist politico-religious movements, often associated with youth radicalization, may affect future fertility in Tunisia through an increase in family influences on birth control by married women.

We revisit fertility analysis in Tunisia by examining family interference in birth control through: woman's marriage age, post-marriage delay in the first use of contraception, past and current contraceptive use, and choice of the birth control methods. Using data from the 2001 PAP-FAM Tunisian survey, we find that the significant effects of covariates arise and vanish across stage-specific equations as women progress in their lifecycle. In Tunisia, family links and socio-cultural environment appear to greatly shape fertility regulation in the direction of higher fertility. This calls for more intensive involvement of the extended families in family planning policies. This also suggests that the resurgence of traditionalist politico-religious movements, often associated with youth radicalization, may affect future fertility in Tunisia through an increase in family influences on birth control by married women.

We revisit fertility analysis in Tunisia by examining family interference in birth control through: woman's marriage age, post-marriage delay in the first use of contraception, past and current contraceptive use, and choice of the birth control methods. Using data from the 2001 PAP-FAM Tunisian survey, we find that the significant effects of covariates arise and vanish across stage-specific equations as women progress in their lifecycle. In Tunisia, family links and socio-cultural environment appear to greatly shape fertility regulation in the direction of higher fertility. This calls for more intensive involvement of the extended families in family planning policies. This also suggests that the resurgence of traditionalist politico-religious movements, often associated with youth radicalization, may affect future fertility in Tunisia through an increase in family influences on birth control by married women.

Over the last half century, violent conflicts between ethno-religious organizations and states have shaped the political and economic development context in developing countries. However, global empirical evidence on the dynamic and strategic underpinnings of these phenomena is lacking. Here, we investigate the dynamic violent relationships between the organizations that represent minorities at risk and the governments in Middle-Eastern and North African countries. Our estimates of dynamic panel data models of discrete strategic responses reveal dampened cycles of violence between states and insurgent politico-ethnic organizations due to violent mutual responses. However, such cycles are absent when the organizations target civilians instead, which is more likely after an insurgency spell. Finally, we provide an original game-theoretical interpretative framework for our results, which allows us to identify, on average and under sensible restrictions, the Stag Hunt game as an appropriate representation of the (possibly reduced-form) general strategic situations that link states and minority organizations in MENA.This is at odds with the frequent use of the prisoner's dilemma setting in the literature, or of other ad hoc strategic hypotheses, to analyze conflicts.

Over the last half century, violent conflicts between ethno-religious organizations and states have shaped the political and economic development context in developing countries. However, global empirical evidence on the dynamic and strategic underpinnings of these phenomena is lacking. Here, we investigate the dynamic violent relationships between the organizations that represent minorities at risk and the governments in Middle-Eastern and North African countries. Our estimates of dynamic panel data models of discrete strategic responses reveal dampened cycles of violence between states and insurgent politico-ethnic organizations due to violent mutual responses. However, such cycles are absent when the organizations target civilians instead, which is more likely after an insurgency spell. Finally, we provide an original game-theoretical interpretative framework for our results, which allows us to identify, on average and under sensible restrictions, the Stag Hunt game as an appropriate representation of the (possibly reduced-form) general strategic situations that link states and minority organizations in MENA.This is at odds with the frequent use of the prisoner's dilemma setting in the literature, or of other ad hoc strategic hypotheses, to analyze conflicts.

We revisit fertility analysis in Tunisia by examining family interference in birth control through: woman's marriage age, post-marriage delay in the first use of contraception, past and current contraceptive use, and choice of the birth control methods. Using data from the 2001 PAP-FAM Tunisian survey, we find that the significant effects of covariates arise and vanish across stage-specific equations as women progress in their lifecycle. In Tunisia, family links and socio-cultural environment appear to greatly shape fertility regulation in the direction of higher fertility. This calls for more intensive involvement of the extended families in family planning policies. This also suggests that the resurgence of traditionalist politico-religious movements, often associated with youth radicalization, may affect future fertility in Tunisia through an increase in family influences on birth control by married women.

Agricultural policies in poor rural developing countries typically aim at improving household nutrition by raising households' agricultural profit and presumably their dietary intake as a consequence. However, it is not clear how much of the impact of these policies goes through profit in practice. If the proportion is large, this would confirm the policy orientation and direct the attention of policy makers toward the different financial incentives. Even full activity substitution may occur, which may transform households' lifestyles and access to nutrient sources and thereby affect their nutrition. If, in contrast, the policy impact does not go through profit, then the policy perspective should be adjusted, and a thorough examination and monitoring of its other channels of influence should be undertaken.Using statistical mediation analysis, we investigate the mechanisms underlying the effect of agricultural policies directed toward pastoralist households on their dietary intake in terms of these direct and indirect (through profit) effects. Based on an agro-pastoral survey conducted in Niger in 2016, the effects of extension services associated with better access to markets are found to be channeled mostly through pastoral profits, while this is not the case for private veterinary services and low-cost livestock feed programs. Extension services may foster specialization in cattle and sheep raising, which incentivizes households to switch toward a nomadic lifestyle and limits their access to cereals, a valuable source of calories. As a result, extension services are found to damage their calorie intake.

Agricultural policies in poor rural developing countries typically aim at improving household nutrition by raising households' agricultural profit and presumably their dietary intake as a consequence. However, it is not clear how much of the impact of these policies goes through profit in practice. If the proportion is large, this would confirm the policy orientation and direct the attention of policy makers toward the different financial incentives. Even full activity substitution may occur, which may transform households' lifestyles and access to nutrient sources and thereby affect their nutrition. If, in contrast, the policy impact does not go through profit, then the policy perspective should be adjusted, and a thorough examination and monitoring of its other channels of influence should be undertaken.Using statistical mediation analysis, we investigate the mechanisms underlying the effect of agricultural policies directed toward pastoralist households on their dietary intake in terms of these direct and indirect (through profit) effects. Based on an agro-pastoral survey conducted in Niger in 2016, the effects of extension services associated with better access to markets are found to be channeled mostly through pastoral profits, while this is not the case for private veterinary services and low-cost livestock feed programs. Extension services may foster specialization in cattle and sheep raising, which incentivizes households to switch toward a nomadic lifestyle and limits their access to cereals, a valuable source of calories. As a result, extension services are found to damage their calorie intake.