Suchergebnisse

AbstractRussia's invasion of Ukraine has had significant global economic implications, disrupting trade flows and leading to a rise in oil prices that has affected world economies, including Morocco. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of these external shocks on the Moroccan economy using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which enables detailed analysis of the interactions between various macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates and trade balances. The results of the study highlight the importance of taking risk premium shocks into account in economic policy‐making, as they can lead to higher inflation and a real depreciation of the Moroccan currency. The DSGE model provides a sound analytical framework for policy‐makers to assess and manage the impact of these external shocks on the Moroccan economy and thus promote economic stability and growth in the context of global economic uncertainty.

AbstractThis study employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, integrated with a Susceptible‐Infected‐Recovered (SIR) epidemiological framework, to assess the macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy during the COVID‐19 pandemic in Morocco. Calibrated with Moroccan COVID‐19 data, the model links epidemiological dynamics to macroeconomic variables, offering a detailed analysis of fiscal interventions. The primary objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of various fiscal measures, including government spending shocks, consumption tax cuts, and labor tax reductions, in stimulating economic activity and supporting households and businesses impacted by the pandemic. The results indicate that government spending shocks significantly stimulated economic activity and employment, but also led to increased public debt and inflationary pressures, thereby illustrating the inherent trade‐offs. Consumption tax cuts, intended to boost demand, had mixed effects on inflation; while prices for some goods declined, higher demand caused price increases in others. Labor tax reductions, aimed at enhancing employment, generated varied effects on labor supply and contributed to rising public debt due to lower tax revenues. The study underscores the necessity of balanced fiscal strategies to achieve both immediate economic recovery and long‐term fiscal sustainability, highlighting the critical role of well‐calibrated fiscal policies in mitigating the economic consequences of pandemics.

AbstractThis study explores the impact of oil shocks on the Moroccan economy using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The DSGE simulations reveal that these shocks, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, led to a contraction in the output gap, consumption, investment, and savings, as well as increased inflation. These results highlight the vulnerability of the Moroccan economy to external shocks, particularly those linked to energy prices. They underline the need for Morocco to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependence on oil imports. Furthermore, our results suggest that economic policies should focus on mitigating the effects of these shocks. Future research could seek to refine this model by incorporating other factors likely to influence the Moroccan economy, such as changes in global demand or specific government policies.

This article explores the impact of trend inflation on monetary policy under a higher inflation target. Adding trend inflation to DSGE models helps us understand the inflation gap better; the gap is less persistent when it is measured as a deviation from trend instead of as a constant average. A high inflation target is likely to overshoot unless the monetary authorities adopt restrictive measures to keep output below its deterministic equilibrium. Indeed, Bank Al-Maghrib raised its key rate by 0.25 percentage points to achieve an inflation rate of 2%, underscoring the importance of maintaining this trajectory. The study identifies key policy implications: higher trend inflation destabilizes expectations, forcing monetary policy to react more to inflation deviations and less to output gaps in high-target environments. These conclusions hold for different parameterizations and specifications of the Taylor rule (backward-looking, forward-looking, and inertial). In addition, Taylor rules based on output growth rather than output gaps widen the zone of determinism, making it easier to adopt a single reference value.

This study explores the impact of unconventional monetary policy on Morocco's economy during the Covid-19 pandemic. We used a hybrid model combining a financial dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a standard epidemiology model, enabling us to consider both economic and epidemiological factors. Our results indicate that unconventional monetary policy cannot fully mitigate the adverse effects of a pandemic, except for an exogenous increase in Central Bank claims. We also found that Morocco's high inflation is partly due to Bank Al-Maghrib's unconventional monetary measures in response to the pandemic. Our research underscores the importance of monetary authorities balancing the benefits and risks of unconventional monetary policy. While it can stimulate the economy during crises, it should be used judiciously to avoid long-term negative effects. Incorporating epidemiological factors into macroeconomic models is crucial for understanding the intricate interplay between the economy and public health crises.