Suchergebnisse

Although increasing emphasis in urban planning and research is being placed on the development of micro-analytic models it will be many years before suitable data are available to permit their widespread application. Until that time efforts must be made to extract maximum utility from existing data. Blalock's method of causal analysis utilising simple and partial correlation coefficients is presented. The method, which is applicable to existing census data, explores the structural relations between several variables. The procedure is applied to an ecological analysis of associations between intra-urban migration rates and selected socio-economic and demographic variables in Brisbane, Australia. An initial causal model is derived from previous studies. The process of testing and reformulating the model proves of considerable heuristic value in understanding factors influencing the stability of the urban environment.

The Annual Housing Survey Metropolitan Samples are used to examine the structure of local mobility flows. An accounting framework is developed to identify mobility in terms of relocations between different segments of the housing stock, by households with varying socio-demographic profiles, and distinguished by the circumstances of the moves themselves. Flows are examined for the sample cities of Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Phoenix. For each city, a matrix of flows is created for the basic dimensions of city-suburb and own-rent categories. Odds ratios are used to examine the stability of relative movement tendencies both across housing submarkets and across cities. The most significant finding is that, despite the considerable variation in overall mobility rates between the sample cities, there is a great deal of consistency in the structure of the rates. The distribution of types of decisions for moves and the relative likelihood of moving for different submarket groups were surprisingly similar over very different local contexts. On the other hand, there are substantial differences in the spatial and submarket characteristics of flows. The high degree of submarket interaction in Phoenix is strongly contrasted with the relative isolation of the central city and suburbs in Detroit. The preliminary findings indicate the importance of the Annual Housing Survey as a means of elucidating the structure of the flows within metropolitan submarkets.