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AbstractThis quantitative study evaluates how 71 Spanish undergraduate students perceive and interpret the uncertainty inherent to deterministic forecasts. It is based on several questions that asked participants what they expect given a forecast presented under the deterministic paradigm for a specific lead time and a particular weather parameter. In this regard, both normal and extreme weather conditions were studied. Students' responses to the temperature forecast as it is usually presented in the media expect an uncertainty range of ±1°–2°C. For wind speed, uncertainty shows a deviation of ±5–10 km h−1, and the uncertainty range assigned to the precipitation amount shows a deviation of ±30 mm from the specific value provided in a deterministic format. Participants perceive the minimum night temperatures as the least-biased parameter from the deterministic forecast, while the amount of rain is perceived as the most-biased one. In addition, participants were then asked about their probabilistic threshold for taking appropriate precautionary action under distinct decision-making scenarios of temperature, wind speed, and rain. Results indicate that participants have different probabilistic thresholds for taking protective action and that context and presentation influence forecast use. Participants were also asked about the meaning of the probability-of-precipitation (PoP) forecast. Around 40% of responses reformulated the default options, and around 20% selected the correct answer, following previous studies related to this research topic. As a general result, it has been found that participants infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts, and they are mostly used to take action in the presence of decision-making scenarios. In contrast, more difficulties were found when interpreting probabilistic forecasts.

Microcystins (MC) are highly toxic secondary metabolites produced by cyanobacterial blooms in many freshwater ecosystems used for recreational and drinking water purposes. So far, biological processes remain to be optimized for an efficient cyanotoxin removal, and new approaches are necessary to compete with physical-chemical treatments. In previous studies we provided a new concept of membrane biofilm reactor made of recycled material, in which a single MC-degrading bacterial strain was inoculated. The present study evaluates the capacity of bacterial consortia associated with freshwater cyanobacterial blooms to form biofilms on recycled membranes and remove MC. Three different discarded reverse osmosis (RO) membranes, previously used in desalination plants after treating brackish water (BWd), seawater (SWd) and brackish water but transformed into nanofiltration (BWt-NF), were exposed to a cyanobacterial bloom in San Juan reservoir (central Spain). Results showed that the three recycled membranes developed a bacterial community with MC removal capacity. Little differences in bacterial coverage and MC removal efficiency between membranes were observed after their exposure in the reservoir. High-throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA gene analysis showed similar bacterial community composition at the phylum level but dissimilar at the order level between the three membranes. This suggests possible surface selectivity on the attached bacterial community. The mlr candidates such as Burkholderiales and Methylophilales were highly abundant in BWt-NF and BWd, respectively, while mlr candidates (e.g. Sphingomonadales) were low abundant in all membranes. Analysis of mlrA and mlrB genes used as markers for MC degradation following mlr-pathway confirmed the presence of this pathway in all membranes. These results suggest the co-existence of both genotypes in membrane-attached native biofilms. Therefore, this study confirms that recycled membranes are suitable support for many MC-degrading bacteria, thus giving value to discarded membranes for eco-friendly and low-cost biological filters. ; With funding from the Spanish government through the "María de Maeztu Unit of Excellence" accreditation (MDM-2017-0737)