Suchergebnisse

The regular economic crisis prompts macroeconomists to revise their models. The monetary policy is no exception. As a result of the "Great Recession" in 2007-2009 and the COVID-­19 pandemic in 2020-2021, they were forced to refresh a look at the monetary policy models that define central bank's short­term interest rate decisions. The principles of the New Keynesian economics lie behind most modern models of monetary policy. A set of equations based on several theoretical assumptions and simplifications leads to certain model conclusions. An active work to review the New Keynesian models in the 2020s is under way. Key improvements include financial sector modeling; replacing rational expectations with their alternatives, as well as representative economic agents with heterogeneous ones; finding microeconomic foundations for assumptions; and fiscal policy modeling.

The concept of monetary aggregates has always followed changes in monetary policy. Its development reflects the victories and mistakes of monetary authorities. Although they played the roles of operational and intermediate targets in the past, today they are used in the analysis of the banking sector and financial stability. Some economists believe that broad monetary aggregates such as Divisia help explain macroeconomic dynamics and should be included in the central bank's interest rate decision rules. In addition, functional monetary aggregates are proposed as an alternative, behind which there are complex calculations. In the near future, the introduction of central bank digital currencies must lead to a redefinition of the monetary base and simple aggregates.

In 2022, Russian investors will get access to the wide possibilities of the global financial market. The Bank of Russia opens the market for foreign exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — one of the main savings instruments for households. The economy of ETFs differs from other investment funds, whose shares do not have secondary market. The opening of the ETFs market is intended to solve a number of issues for retail investors: moving away from the preference to individual foreign shares towards portfolio diversification, cost reduction, ensuring sustainable profitability, abandoning the aggressive securities trading, and supporting market competition. Soon, ETFs will be one of the driving forces in financial markets. However, their rapid growth is fraught with little-studied effects.

In the economic literature authors believe that central banks manage long-term interest rates on loans through the short-term money market interest rate in order to maintain price stability and balanced economic growth. However, macroeconomic theory tells extremely sparingly about the interest rate channel of monetary policy. In general terms, it conducts changes through a term premium and expectations in the government securities market. In applied research, economists only observe the final reaction of lending rates to the non-financial sector. Economists traditionally believe that the interest rate channel requires a developed financial sector. In some cases, in particular, at zero rates or in a small open economy that depends on the exchange rate, the interest rate channel works poorly. However, its effectiveness can be maintained without developed financial markets. The answer is the pricing of banking loans.

The reform of benchmarks is carried out in developed economies from 2014 to 2021. The starting point of a large-scale reform was the scandal with the interest rate LIBOR. Instead of it, national so-called "risk-free" interest rates will appear. Although a problem of manipulating LIBOR will be resolved, new benchmarks bring new problems. They have statistical biases and will not be comparable either to LIBOR or to each other due to methodological differences. The new benchmark rates are overnight rates, and their calculation does not imply the formation of term rates. Instead of the homogeneous LIBOR family, financial markets have received a heterogeneous group of new rates. In some developing economies money markets are absent, and their central banks are faced with a problem of how to calculate the local benchmark rate under the new rules. As an alternative they are searching to use interest rates in neighboring markets.

Macroeconomics is the basis of monetary policy analysis in most researches. At the same time a new cross disciplinary approach has emerged - at the crossroad of macroeconomics and behavioral economics. Alternative theories describe the impact of personnel independence of monetary authorities, career incentives, staff properties and the gender diversity of central bank governors on monetary policy results. They shed the light on personnel policy characteristics and the staff profile in a central bank.

The classical monetarism passed away. However it was substituted by a new school that rose in 2005-2010 under the name of "new" monetarism. The new direction is rather young and its area of influence is limited to modeling. Several ideas of "old" monetarism are used in the practice of monetary policy: for example, monetary policy rules, monetary targeting in developing economies and using of money as an economic variable in the monetary analysis. Some important principles of monetarism have remained in the modern macroeconomic analysis. In particular, price stability is the ultimate, but not unique goal of any central bank. The public commitment of the central bank is the key for confidence to monetary policy. Monetary policy (but not fiscal policy) is considered as the main tool of short-term macroeconomic stabilization.