Modelling and Optimisation Planning of the Dynamic System of Energy Supply - Integrating Demand-Side Management and Forecasting
The operation of energy systems has a significant role in climate change and global warming, coupled with increasing international commitments that are calling to preserve the environment. This situation needs to optimally exploit the energy resources and develop in a more sustainable way. Recently, the worldwide trend of introducing renewable energy sources is increasing and moving towards achievable sustainability. Furthermore, the change in the structure of energy systems, and the new system arising from deregulation and decentralization of the system, is influenced by various actors. Those circumstances of energy systems indicate that they can develop models based on the agent-based methodology. This approach can help find many possible options based on determining the assumptions for an energy system before they are actually applied. The main motivation to develop an energy distributed planning model is to find a suitable solution for the case of Iraq's electricity power system that is suffering from many challenges. That emerged as a result of atypical circumstances occurring in Iraq during the last three decades. It aims to analyse the electricity supply development in Iraq with a simultaneous economic growth and shifts in the electricity market. Moreover, Iraq's domestic energy prospects and the factors which influence projections for the future energy electrical demand are analysed. It is clear in this study that the security situation has a significant impact on the investment in the electricity sector and its rehabilitation. Therefore, the focus on privatisation means that the government has to adopt strong legislation for electrical systems, because, on the one hand, it can give a framework for the ownership and financing of infrastructure improvements, and can create incentives to encourage greater investment. On the other hand, under this security situation and existing causal relationship between energy demand and the economic development of GDP, meeting demand growth remains a major challenge. ...