Suchergebnisse

© 2019 The Author(s). Background: Recent reports of the National Ministry of Health and Treatment of Iran (NMHT) show that Gilan has a higher annual incidence rate of leptospirosis than other provinces across the country. Despite several efforts of the government and NMHT to eradicate leptospirosis, it remains a public health problem in this province. Modelling and Prediction of this disease may play an important role in reduction of the prevalence. Methods: This study aims to model and predict the spatial distribution of leptospirosis utilizing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as capable approaches. Five environmental parameters of precipitation, temperature, humidity, elevation and vegetation are used for modelling and predicting of the disease. Data of 2009 and 2010 are used for training, and 2011 for testing and evaluating the models. Results: Results indicate that utilized approaches in this study can model and predict leptospirosis with high significance level. To evaluate the efficiency of the approaches, MSE (GWR = 0.050, SVM = 0.137, GLM = 0.118 and ANN = 0.137), MAE (0.012, 0.063, 0.052 and 0.063), MRE (0.011, 0.018, 0.017 and 0.018) and R2 (0.85, 0.80, 0.78 and 0.75) are used. Conclusion: Results indicate the practical usefulness of approaches for spatial modelling and predicting leptospirosis. The efficiency of models is as follow: GWR > SVM > GLM > ANN. In addition, temperature and humidity are investigated as the most influential parameters. Moreover, the suitable habitat of leptospirosis is mostly within the central rural districts of the province.

BACKGROUND: Crystal (methamphetamine) is a strong stimulant of addictive substances that affects the central nervous system. The consumption of this substance is increasing among teenagers and adult young people in the country. In this matter, one of the practical and important ways to its control is to identify the factors leading to its first use. Thus this paper, explores the factors related to the first crystal use in Golestan province, Iran. METHODS: In a qualitative study, 19 crystal users were recruited in the study conducted in Golestan province by snowball sampling from DIC (Drop-In Center) in addiction treatment centers. The interviews were mostly carried out individually with the participants; only one interview was conducted in an addiction treatment camp in the form of a group-focused discussion. Data analysis was implemented through content analysis in MAXQDA 10 software. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 35.05 ± 6.06 years with a range of 23–46 years. Meanwhile, the mean of crystal use period was 7.42 (SD: 3.61) and a range of 1–14 years. Based on the obtained data, the reasons for first crystal use could be categorized in six; 1: "crystal use to other drugs rehabilitation"; 2: "Lack of awareness of the addictive nature of crystal"; 3: "stimulating curiosity in public with crystal-use friends", 4: affordable and convenient use", 5: "anti-sleeping effects and increasing work efficiency", and 6: "therapeutic and other misconceptions"". CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated that crystal is mostly abused to opium rehabilitation. The lack of awareness and misconceptions about this substance can lead people to crystal use. Therefore, designing public health interventions to increase awareness about negative consequences of crystal use is fundamental to prevent people from abusing it. We suggest designing public health program to promote awareness about health risks of crystal and modifying related misconceptions. Finally, the government can establish policies to mandate sale tax for crystal ...