Suchergebnisse

This study was inspired by the observation that despite the considerable efforts in financialliberalization in Malawi from the late 1980s, the apparent results were mediocre, especially with regardto the persistence of high intermediation margins (spreads). The central objective of this study is to tryto investigate why. The key hypothesis is that if one does not take into account of bank behavior interms of how banks react vis-à-vis their incentives and constraints during the process of financialliberalization, the results are likely to be disappointing. The study shows that in an economic situationcharacterized by macroeconomic instability, banks have less incentive to be more efficient from amacroeconomic perspective, i.e., by enhancing financial deepening through higher credit to the privatesector. On the contrary, while acting rationally, they are tempted to look for easy and safe returnscoming from financing government deficits. This allows them to accomplish two objectives: maximizingprofit and minimizing credit risk, notably by pushing the "external constraints" imposed by economicconditions - including high rediscount rates- to their customers through a combination of an increasein interest rates on loans and a smaller increase in interest rates on deposits.Keywords: financial liberalization, bank behavior, intermediation margins, bank ; Notre étude a été inspirée par l'observation que malgré les efforts considérables en matière de la libéralisation financière au Malawi à partir de la fin des années 1980, les résultats apparents étaient plutôt médiocres, notamment en ce qui concerne la persistance de marges d'intermédiation (spreads) élevés. L'objectif central de notre travail est d'essayer d'élucider pourquoi. Notre hypothèse centrale est que si l'on ne tient pas compte du comportement des banques en matière de leurs réactions vis-à-vis de leurs incitations et leurs contraintes dans la mise en place de la politique de la libéralisation financière, on est voué à la déception en matière des résultats. ...

This study was inspired by the observation that despite the considerable efforts in financialliberalization in Malawi from the late 1980s, the apparent results were mediocre, especially with regardto the persistence of high intermediation margins (spreads). The central objective of this study is to tryto investigate why. The key hypothesis is that if one does not take into account of bank behavior interms of how banks react vis-à-vis their incentives and constraints during the process of financialliberalization, the results are likely to be disappointing. The study shows that in an economic situationcharacterized by macroeconomic instability, banks have less incentive to be more efficient from amacroeconomic perspective, i.e., by enhancing financial deepening through higher credit to the privatesector. On the contrary, while acting rationally, they are tempted to look for easy and safe returnscoming from financing government deficits. This allows them to accomplish two objectives: maximizingprofit and minimizing credit risk, notably by pushing the "external constraints" imposed by economicconditions - including high rediscount rates- to their customers through a combination of an increasein interest rates on loans and a smaller increase in interest rates on deposits.Keywords: financial liberalization, bank behavior, intermediation margins, bank ; Notre étude a été inspirée par l'observation que malgré les efforts considérables en matière de la libéralisation financière au Malawi à partir de la fin des années 1980, les résultats apparents étaient plutôt médiocres, notamment en ce qui concerne la persistance de marges d'intermédiation (spreads) élevés. L'objectif central de notre travail est d'essayer d'élucider pourquoi. Notre hypothèse centrale est que si l'on ne tient pas compte du comportement des banques en matière de leurs réactions vis-à-vis de leurs incitations et leurs contraintes dans la mise en place de la politique de la libéralisation financière, on est voué à la déception en matière des résultats. L'étude montre que dans une situation économique caractérisée par une instabilité macroéconomique, les banques ont moins d'incitations à être plus efficientes du point de vue macroéconomique, c'est à dire en agissant dans la direction de l'approfondissement financier et de l'octroi de crédit au secteur privé. Bien au contraire, tout en agissant de manière rationnelle, elles sont tentées de rechercher des rentes faciles et sûres qui viennent du financement des déficits publics. Ceci leur permet d'accomplir deux objectifs : maximiser leur profit et minimiser leur risque-crédit, notamment en repoussant les « contraintes externes » imposées par les conditions économiques -notamment les taux d'escompte élevées- à leur clients à travers la combinaison d'une augmentation de taux d'intérêt sur les prêts et d'une faible augmentation des taux d'intérêt sur les dépôts.

The paper explores the quality of the recent high-growth episode in sub-Saharan Africa by examining the following two questions: (i) what has been the nature and pattern of SSA growth over the past 15 years and how does it compare with previous episodes? (ii) has this growth had an impact on socially desirable outcomes, for example, improvements in health, education and poverty indicators? To do this, the paper first examines various aspects of the fundamentals of growth in SSA?levels, volatility, sources, etc.?according to various country analytical groupings. Second, it explores the extent t

With the exception of Burkina Faso and Mali, the growth experience for WAEMU countries has been disappointing, even when compared to other sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The main objective of the paper is to investigate why the quest for a growth takeoff has been more elusive in the WAEMU countries compared to other SSA countries. To do this, the paper focuses on the determinants of growth accelerations and decelerations in SSA and the WAEMU. It finds that the variables most closely associated with growth accelerations and decelerations in SSA are changes in terms of trade, private inves

Although the economic growth literature has come a long way since the Solow-Swan model of the fifties, there is still considerable debate on the ""real' or ""deep"" determinants of growth. This paper revisits the question of what is really important for strong long-term growth by using a Binary Classification Tree approach, a nonparametric statistical technique that is not commonly used in the growth literature. A key strength of the method is that it recognizes that a combination of conditions can be instrumental in leading to a particular outcome, in this case strong growth. The paper finds