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According to the author, as an innovative sophistication increasingly characterizes the conduct of foreign policy on each side of the Sino-Soviet border, the relationship is being transformed. Thoughtful flexibility is replacing outdated rigidities. He discusses the issue of removing inpredictability in Sino-Soviet relations with the aid of international relations models. The author believes that China will increasingly make decisions that do not fit with the desires of either superpower. (DÜI-Sen)

Computer scientists studying the automation of analytical techniques based on human cognitive processes have in recent years developed several innovative methodologies well suited to social science research. Rule-based analytical tools, databases that return information that is "similar" to that requested, inductive classification of examples, and self-sorting bibliographies are among the potential new tools that could greatly expand the analytical powers of social science researchers. Unfortunately, most social science graduates still remam largely unaware of their potential. This article describes software designed to introduce these methods and show how they can be applied to social science problems.1

The process of coding a rule-based expert system in Prolog is described in terms designed to (1) clarify the conditions under which this analytical methodology is an appropriate social science research tool and (2) encourage social scientists unfamiliar with this analytical technology to experiment with it. The application is Sino-Soviet diplomatic negotiating sessions. Code for a simplified working version is presented, along with instructions for adapting it—perhaps as a classroom exercise—to other problems. Keywords: international relations, political science, methodology, Prolog, programming, tutonal, expert systems, artificial intelligence.

Information occurs along a continuum from unorganized text at one extreme to rigorous statistical data at the other. Traditional descriptive analysis handles the former, statistical methods the latter But much of the richest information available for mternational relations research lies between these extremes This body of information can be formally organized, but the resulting data are usually verbal, not clearly bounded, and explained poorly by theory New analytical methods are needed to process such data; the increasingly creative field of artificial intelligence provides one of the most fertile sources of such methods To illustrate this point, a rule-based computational model designed to analyze Sino-Soviet negotiating sessions is presented: one part accepts user input, analyzes a single negotiating session, and constructs a case library, the second part allows highly efficient reviewing of this library. Keywords: computational modeling, artificial intelligence, expert systems, international relations, Smo-Soviet relations, rule-based analysis, prolog.

Als Gorbatschow am 11. März 1985 - noch nicht als Generalsekretär - seinen Wunsch nach verbesserten Beziehungen zwischen der UdSSR und der Volksrepublik China zum Ausdruck brachte, mußte man sich fragen, ob beide Staaten auf dem Weg zu normalen Beziehungen und institutionalisierter Kooperation waren. Die Untersuchung des ersten Amtsjahres Gorbatschows kommt in mittel- und langfristiger Perspektive zu dem Schluß, daß die gegenwärtigen Schritte zur Normalisierung den bilateralen Antagonismus, der auf unterschiedlichen strategischen Interessen beruht, nicht beseitigen können. Im Gegenteil: Der erwartete politische und wirtschaftliche Aufstieg der Volksrepublik wird den Konflikt verstärken und den Wettbewerb zwischen beiden Staaten von der polemisch-ideologischen auf eine substantielle Ebene transponieren. (SWP-Hld)

Centrally mandated changes in leaders and streamlining of the provincial bureaucracy, 1983.