Evaluating Climate Change Impacts
Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Preface -- Part I: Ecosystem Impacts -- 1. On Evaluation of Climate Models -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 A brief tour of climate models -- 1.3 Evaluation of climate model outputs: summary measures -- 1.3.1 Simple summary measures -- 1.3.2 Evaluation by process isolation, instrument simulators, and initial value techniques -- 1.4 Ensemble-based approaches -- 1.4.1 Multimodel ensembles -- 1.4.2 Perturbation-parameter ensembles -- 1.4.3 Reliability ensemble averaging -- 1.4.4 Bayesian ensembles -- 1.4.5 Machine-learning ensemble approaches -- 1.5 Probabilistic model evaluation techniques -- 1.5.1 Model comparison by moving-block bootstrap -- 1.5.2 Evaluation using functional representations -- 1.6 Ensemble using empirical likelihood -- 1.7 Conclusions and future directions -- References -- 2. A Statistical Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Changes -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Data -- 2.3 Statistical methods -- 2.3.1 Penalized likelihood changepoint methods -- 2.3.2 Poisson counts -- 2.3.3 Correlated Gaussian data -- 2.4 Results -- 2.4.1 Total cyclone counts -- 2.4.2 Hurricanes and major storms -- 2.4.3 Analyses with segment-length restrictions -- 2.4.4 Accumulated cyclone energy -- 2.5 Comments and conclusions -- References -- 3. Fire-Weather Index and Climate Change -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Statistical modeling of the fire-weather index monthly maxima -- 3.2.1 Separate modeling -- 3.2.2 Spatial modeling -- 3.3 Summary and discussion -- References -- 4. Probabilistic Projections of High-Tide Flooding for the State of Maryland in the Twenty-First Century -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Methods -- 4.2.1 Regional ocean model -- 4.2.2 Design of numerical experiments -- 4.2.3 Inundation impact analysis -- 4.3 Results -- 4.3.1 Bay-wide response -- 4.3.2 Dorchester County.