Suchergebnisse

Abstract. Written sources that aim at documenting and analysing a particular natural hazard event in the recent past are published at vast majority as grey literature (e.g. as technical reports) and therefore outside of the scholarly publication routes. In consequence, the application of event-specific documentation in natural hazard research has been constrained by barriers in accessibility, concerns of credibility towards these sources and by limited awareness of their content and its usefulness for research questions. In this study we address the concerns of credibility for the first time and present a quality assessment framework for written sources from a user's perspective, i.e. we assess the documents' fitness for use to enhance the understanding of trans-basin floods in Germany in the period 1952–2002. The framework is designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard event documentation and assesses the quality of a document, addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. We introduce an ordinal scaling scheme to grade the quality in the individual quality dimensions and the Pedigree score which serves as a measure for the overall document quality. We present results of an application of the framework to a set of 133 cases of event-specific documentation relevant for understanding trans-basin floods in Germany. Our results show that the majority of flood event-specific reports are of good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The validation of our results against assessments of two independent peers confirms the objectivity and transparency of the quality assessment framework. Using an example flood event that occurred in October/November 1998 we demonstrate how the information from multiple reports can be synthesised.

Abstract. The usual approach for flood damage assessment consists of stage-damage functions which relate the relative or absolute damage for a certain class of objects to the inundation depth. Other characteristics of the flooding situation and of the flooded object are rarely taken into account, although flood damage is influenced by a variety of factors. We apply a group of data-mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, to flood damage assessment. A very comprehensive data set of more than 1000 records of direct building damage of private households in Germany is used. Each record contains details about a large variety of potential damage-influencing characteristics, such as hydrological and hydraulic aspects of the flooding situation, early warning and emergency measures undertaken, state of precaution of the household, building characteristics and socio-economic status of the household. Regression trees and bagging decision trees are used to select the more important damage-influencing variables and to derive multi-variate flood damage models. It is shown that these models outperform existing models, and that tree-structured models are a promising alternative to traditional damage models.

Abstract. In a comment to our recently published paper on the "Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events" (Merz et al., 2009), C. M. Rheinberger questions the use of relative damage as a suitable indicator for risk aversion and the use of the resulting risk aversion functions in judging flood mitigation measures. While the points of criticism are important and should be accounted for, most of these points are considered in our original paper. More importantly, we do not agree with the conclusion that the use of relative damage as indicator for risk aversion is generally not appropriate in decision making about flood mitigation measures.

Abstract. The link between trends in circulation patterns and trends in the flood magnitude is studied for 122 meso-scale catchments in Germany for a period of 52 years (1951–2002). Flood trends, significant at the 10% level, are detected for a large number of catchments. The catchments are pooled into three regions, based on flood seasonality and flood trends. Field-significant increasing trends are found for winter in Regions West and East. For summer, increasing and decreasing flood trends are detected for Regions South and East, respectively. The temporal behaviour of three flood indicators of each region is compared to atmospheric indicators derived from circulation patterns. Significantly increasing frequency and persistence of flood-prone circulation patterns intensify the flood hazard during the winter season throughout Germany. Moreover, a trend towards a reduced diversity of circulation patterns is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. This indicates changes in the dynamics of atmospheric circulations which directly influence the flood hazard. Longer persistence of circulation patterns which in general do not favour large precipitation amounts may lead to large runoff coefficients due to soil-moistening and hence cause floods.

Abstract. The paper analyses the prevailing breach mechanisms of fluvial dikes. Piping in the dike foundation and slope failure as a consequence of seepage flow through a dike core (micro-instability) were identified as two of the dominant breach mechanisms for historically-grown dikes along with overtopping and slope macro-instability. For the former two mechanisms the physically-based and empirical process descriptions were reviewed and led to the formulation of the reliability functions. Evaluation of these functions in the Monte Carlo framework for the time dependent load led to the development of fragility functions. These functions indicate the probability of failure of a dike section upon loading and can be computed for each spatially discretised dike section. The probability of breaching is conditioned by the uncertainty in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters. This uncertainty is explicitly taken into account during computation of the fragility functions in a Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to identify the sensitive geotechnical parameters influencing the distribution of failure probability. The identification of sensitive parameters indicates the priorities in geotechnical measurement campaigns aimed at the assessment of dike stability. The newly developed fragility functions can be applied in flood hazard and risk assessment studies for modelling of dike failures in a probabilistic framework.

Abstract. The need for an efficient use of limited resources fosters the application of risk-oriented design in flood mitigation. Flood defence measures reduce future damage. Traditionally, this benefit is quantified via the expected annual damage. We analyse the contribution of "high probability/low damage" floods versus the contribution of "low probability/high damage" events to the expected annual damage. For three case studies, i.e. actual flood situations in flood-prone communities in Germany, it is shown that the expected annual damage is dominated by "high probability/low damage" events. Extreme events play a minor role, even though they cause high damage. Using typical values for flood frequency behaviour, flood plain morphology, distribution of assets and vulnerability, it is shown that this also holds for the general case of river floods in Germany. This result is compared to the significance of extreme events in the public perception. "Low probability/high damage" events are more important in the societal view than it is expressed by the expected annual damage. We conclude that the expected annual damage should be used with care since it is not in agreement with societal priorities. Further, risk aversion functions that penalise events with disastrous consequences are introduced in the appraisal of risk mitigation options. It is shown that risk aversion may have substantial implications for decision-making. Different flood mitigation decisions are probable, when risk aversion is taken into account.

Abstract. Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario – global climate model – downscaling, possibly including bias correction – hydrological model – flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires major efforts, and their complexity is high. We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario – global climate model – non-stationary flood frequency model". The underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives a non-stationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate models. The simplicity of the monsoon–flood link allows deriving large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between climate and floods is found.

Abstract. Damage assessments of natural hazards supply crucial information to decision support and policy development in the fields of natural hazard management and adaptation planning to climate change. Specifically, the estimation of economic flood damage is gaining greater importance as flood risk management is becoming the dominant approach of flood control policies throughout Europe. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art and identifies research directions of economic flood damage assessment. Despite the fact that considerable research effort has been spent and progress has been made on damage data collection, data analysis and model development in recent years, there still seems to be a mismatch between the relevance of damage assessments and the quality of the available models and datasets. Often, simple approaches are used, mainly due to limitations in available data and knowledge on damage mechanisms. The results of damage assessments depend on many assumptions, e.g. the selection of spatial and temporal boundaries, and there are many pitfalls in economic evaluation, e.g. the choice between replacement costs or depreciated values. Much larger efforts are required for empirical and synthetic data collection and for providing consistent, reliable data to scientists and practitioners. A major shortcoming of damage modelling is that model validation is scarcely performed. Uncertainty analyses and thorough scrutiny of model inputs and assumptions should be mandatory for each damage model development and application, respectively. In our view, flood risk assessments are often not well balanced. Much more attention is given to the hazard assessment part, whereas damage assessment is treated as some kind of appendix within the risk analysis. Advances in flood damage assessment could trigger subsequent methodological improvements in other natural hazard areas with comparable time-space properties.

Abstract. Flood risk emerges from the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. Over recent decades the notion of risk being the basis for flood management decisions has become widely accepted and operationalised through the use of models and quantified risk analysis providing the evidence for risk-informed decision making. However, it is now abundantly apparent that changes in time, at a range of scales, of pertinent variables that determine risk are not a second order consideration but, instead, fundamentally challenge the conventional approach to flood risk management. The nature of some of these changes, particularly those that operate on extended timescales, are highly uncertain, yet decisions that may have implications for several decades still have to be taken. In this paper we explore how flood risk management may be adapted to address processes of uncertain future change. We identify a range of levels at which change may be incorporated in decision making: in the representation of uncertain non-stationary quantities; in the rules that are used to identify preferred options; in the variety of options that may be contemplated for flood risk management; in the scope of problem definition, which increasingly extends to address multiple hazards and multiple functions of river basins; and in the social and organizational characteristics that promote adaptive capacity. Integrated responses to changing flood risk need to attend to each of these levels of decision making, from the technicalities of non-stationarity, to the promotion of resilient societies.

Abstract. Traditional flood design methods are increasingly supplemented or replaced by risk-oriented methods which are based on comprehensive risk analyses. Besides meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic investigations such analyses require the estimation of flood impacts. Flood impact assessments mainly focus on direct economic losses using damage functions which relate property damage to damage-causing factors. Although the flood damage of a building is influenced by many factors, usually only inundation depth and building use are considered as damage-causing factors. In this paper a data set of approximately 4000 damage records is analysed. Each record represents the direct monetary damage to an inundated building. The data set covers nine flood events in Germany from 1978 to 1994. It is shown that the damage data follow a Lognormal distribution with a large variability, even when stratified according to the building use and to water depth categories. Absolute depth-damage functions which relate the total damage to the water depth are not very helpful in explaining the variability of the damage data, because damage is determined by various parameters besides the water depth. Because of this limitation it has to be expected that flood damage assessments are associated with large uncertainties. It is shown that the uncertainty of damage estimates depends on the number of flooded buildings and on the distribution of building use within the flooded area. The results are exemplified by a damage assessment for a rural area in southwest Germany, for which damage estimates and uncertainty bounds are quantified for a 100-year flood event. The estimates are compared to reported flood damages of a severe flood in 1993. Given the enormous uncertainty of flood damage estimates the refinement of flood damage data collection and modelling are major issues for further empirical and methodological improvements.

Abstract. Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the "German Research Network of Natural Disasters" (DFNK) the working group "Flood Risk Analysis" investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability) and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system). The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results obtained with aleatory uncertainty alone. The model was applied to reaches of the river Rhine downstream of Cologne.

Abstract. Building houses in inundation areas is always a risk, since absolute flood protection is impossible. Where settlements already exist, flood damage must be kept as small as possible. Suitable means are precautionary measures such as elevated building configuration or flood adapted use. However, data about the effects of such measures are rare, and consequently, the efficiency of different precautionary measures is unclear. To improve the knowledge about efficient precautionary measures, approximately 1200 private households, which were affected by the 2002 flood at the river Elbe and its tributaries, were interviewed about the flood damage of their buildings and contents as well as about their precautionary measures. The affected households had little flood experience, i.e. only 15% had experienced a flood before. 59% of the households stated that they did not know, that they live in a flood prone area. Thus, people were not well prepared, e.g. just 11% had used and furnished their house in a flood adapted way and only 6% had a flood adapted building structure. Building precautionary measures are mainly effective in areas with frequent small floods. But also during the extreme flood event in 2002 building measures reduced the flood loss. From the six different building precautionary measures under study, flood adapted use and adapted interior fitting were the most effective ones. They reduced the damage ratio for buildings by 46% and 53%, respectively. The damage ratio for contents was reduced by 48% due to flood adapted use and by 53% due to flood adapted interior fitting. The 2002 flood motivated a relatively large number of people to implement private precautionary measures, but still much more could be done. Hence, to further reduce flood losses, people's motivation to invest in precaution should be improved. More information campaigns and financial incentives should be issued to encourage precautionary measures.

In December 2000, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) of the European Union (EU) was enforced (EC, 2000) to provide a new legislative basis for water management in Europe. The main goal of the WFD is the implementation of river basin water management plans in which comprehensive studies of the current status of the surface and ground water bodies must be reported and management programs must be enforced with cost-effective measures with which a good ecological condition of the water bodies can be attained and sustained.