Suchergebnisse

Five potential sites nominated for the Nation's first geologic repository for disposing of nuclear waste are evaluated using multiattribute utility analysis. The analysis was designed to aid the Department of Energy in its selection of 3 sites for characterization, a detailed data‐gathering process that will involve the construction of exploratory shafts for underground testing and that may cost as much as $1 billion per site. The analysis produced insights into the relative advantages and disadvantages of the nominated sites and clarified current uncertainties regarding repository performance.

This paper presents the history of the Environmental Restoration Priority System (ERPS), a decision aid developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to help determine how to allocate funds for cleaning up hazardous waste sites. Although praised in technical peer review, the system was strongly criticized by stakeholders external to the DOE. Ultimately, and in the midst of a National Academy of Sciences review, DOE shelved the system. The rise and fall of ERPS provides useful lessons for analysts hoping to improve risk management in the public sector.

Influence diagrams were first used in 1973 as a way to model political conflicts in the Persian Gulf and measure the value of information collected by the Defense Intelligence Agency. The number of scenarios for events in the region was too large to be represented as a conventional decision tree model. Influence diagrams were initially conceived as a way to create smaller, coalesced decision trees that required fewer probability assessments. However we found that they also facilitated communication between analysts, experts, and policy makers. Influence diagrams later became the basis for new ways of solving decision models.