Suchergebnisse

Computer science has devised leading methods for predicting variables; can social science compete? The author sets out a social scientific approach to the Fragile Families Challenge. Key insights included new variables constructed according to theory (e.g., a measure of shame relating to hardship), lagged values of the target variables, using predicted values of certain outcomes to inform others, and validated scales rather than individual variables. The models were competitive: a four-variable logistic regression model was placed second for predicting layoffs, narrowly beaten by a model using all the available variables (>10,000) and an ensemble of algorithms. Similarly, a relatively small random forest model (25 variables) was ranked seventh in predicting material hardship. However, a similar approach overfitted the prediction of grit. Machine learning approaches proved superior to linear regression for modeling the continuous outcomes. Overall, social scientists can contribute to predictive performance while benefiting from learning more about data science methods.

The ongoing austerity policies combined with increasingly negative public views about benefits are generating the current crisis of social security benefits. Whilst in previous years there might have been greater concerns about administrative issues and take-up, at present increasing proportions of the public are sceptical about the positive aspects to social security. Strategies to defend social security appear to have gained limited political traction. This time of change for income maintenance, is also a time of change for the editorial team at this journal, and I briefly reflect on 18 years on the editorial board.

AbstractA metrics‐based assessment can predict reasonably well the overall outcome of the Research Assessment Exercise 2008 for social work and social policy and administration in terms of research environment, but not in terms of research outputs. It is not possible to replicate peer review of the research outputs using existing data. It is sometimes argued that citation counts provide an alternative approach that might help research assessment, but it is one fraught with difficulties. Academics did not, in fact, routinely chose to submit their most cited work. At least in this subject, metrics are more suited as handmaiden to peer review than its replacement.

This article reviews and extends existing research on levels of income inequality and of intergenerational social mobility in the UK. While there continues to be widespread concern about inequality of incomes, this is declining and focused mostly on higher earners – there appears to be less public concern about any injustice in terms of the numbers on lower incomes. Recent research on social mobility has been influential and may be one means of focusing attention on the effects of a widening income distribution. Even so, such research could do more to highlight the differences in outcomes based on personal characteristics (eg disability and minority ethnic background) as well as parental characteristics. Overall, it is argued that an egalitarian agenda faces considerable challenges in the UK.

Drawing upon interviews with procedural actants from Public Inquiry and Examination in Public fora, I draw upon relevant theoretical frameworks to evaluate modes of discourse in inquisitorial planning practice. In the investigation, which is based primarily upon an empirical study, I focus upon the role of evidence, the selection and handling of multiple knowledges, the behaviour of participants, and the methodology underpinning the process. It is established that such arenas can be effective mechanisms for testing complex evidence; and suggestions are made for improved practice, procedure, and future research. I conclude by raising serious ethical questions concerning participant behaviour, particularly on the part of advocates and especially chartered town planners.

In the RAE 2001, widely differing proportions of staff were judged internationally excellent in different academic subjects. This has important financial and other implications, and in 2008 a hierarchical structure will aim to increase consistency. We look at those subjects that will be part of a super-unit with social policy in 2008, and consider what objective rationale may explain the wide differences in ratings in 2001. A quantitative analysis found no such rationale, indeed some variations appear perverse. This highlights the need for greater consistency of judgements, perhaps steered by a 'super-panel'.

Devolution creates new opportunities for social research, but places greater pressure on data resources. England tends to dominate in survey sources, unless the sample is unusually large or geographically skewed. Some new and existing surveys only take place within particular countries of the UK. This article describes some potentially useful sources of data, and conducts illustrative analysis of employment, benefit receipt, early parenting and material deprivation.

AbstractThis paper finds that around 80 per cent of the differences in the ratings awarded in the 2001 RAE for social policy may be "explained" using half a dozen pieces of quantitative data. Social policy excellence—as judged by peer review—is associated with the award of doctorates, the amount of money raised, publications in a particular (if broad) range of journals and books by major publishers, and being large. Even taking account of differences on all these factors, the analysis found that new universities fared worse than their quantitative data would suggest. It is argued that quantitative data should play a larger role in decisions about research quality, aiding equity and transparency.