Contagious Animosity in the Field: Evidence from the Federal Criminal Justice System
In: Journal of labor economics: JOLE, Band 39, Heft 3, S. 739-785
ISSN: 1537-5307
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In: Journal of labor economics: JOLE, Band 39, Heft 3, S. 739-785
ISSN: 1537-5307
The UK Welfare Reform Act 2012 imposed a series of welfare cuts, which disproportionately impacted ex-ante poorer areas. In this paper, we consider the impact of these austerity measures on two different but complementary elements of crime - the crime rate and the less-studied concentration of crime - over the period 2011-2015 in England and Wales, and document four new facts. First, areas more exposed to the welfare reforms experience increased levels of crime, an effect driven by a rise in violent crime. Second, both violent and property crime become more concentrated within an area due to the welfare reforms. Third, it is ex-ante more deprived neighborhoods that bear the brunt of the crime increases over this period. Fourth, we find no evidence that the welfare reforms increased recidivism, suggesting that the changes in crime we find are likely driven by new criminals. Combining these results, we document unambiguous evidence of a negative spillover of the welfare reforms at the heart of the UK government's austerity program on social welfare, which reinforced the direct inequality-worsening effect of this program. More deprived districts are more exposed to the welfare reforms, and it is these districts that then experience the further negative consequences of the reforms via increased crime. Our findings underscore the importance of considering both multiple dimensions of crime as well as considering different levels of spatial aggregation of crime data. Given that it is violent crime that responds to the (economicallybased) welfare cuts, our work also highlights the need to develop better economic models of non-rational crime.
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In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14736
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Working paper
In: Journal of political economy, Band 122, Heft 5, S. 1130-1202
ISSN: 1537-534X
In: Journal of political economy, Band 122, Heft 5
ISSN: 0022-3808
We evaluate the impact on crime of a localized policing experiment that depenalized the possession of small quantities of cannabis in the London borough of Lambeth. We find that depenalization policy caused the police to reallocate effort toward nondrug crime. Despite the overall fall in crime attributable to the policy, we find that the total welfare of local residents likely fell, as measured by house prices. We shed light on what would be the impacts on crime of a citywide depenalization policy by developing and calibrating a structural model of the market for cannabis and crime. Adapted from the source document.
In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP9914
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Working paper
In: IZA Discussion Paper No. 8013
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Working paper
In: JPUBE-D-24-00089
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In: Journal of public economics, Band 238, S. 105206
ISSN: 1879-2316
In: CESifo Working Paper No. 10924
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In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 51, Heft 2, S. 209-229
ISSN: 1467-9485
AbstractWe investigate possible explanations for the educational gender gap at age 16. We employ a national dataset of matched exam results of the cohort of pupils who took Key Stage 3 tests in 1999 and GCSEs in 2001. Our key result is the sheer consistency of the gender gap, across both the attainment and the ability distribution, with regard to both raw outcomes and value added. It is primarily driven by performance differentials in English. The generality of the gender gap suggests its source is not within‐school practice, which means that policy directed at improving such practice may be misplaced.
In: Scottish journal of political economy: the journal of the Scottish Economic Society, Band 51, Heft 2, S. 209-229
ISSN: 0036-9292
We investigate possible explanations for the educational gender gap at age 16. We employ a national dataset of matched exam results of the cohort of English pupils who took Key Stage 3 tests in 1999 & GCSEs in 2001. Our key result is the sheer consistency of the gender gap, across both the attainment & the ability distribution, with regard to both raw outcomes & value added. It is primarily driven by performance differentials in English. The generality of the gender gap suggests its source is not within-school practice, which means that policy directed at improving such practice may be misplaced. 5 Tables, 15 Figures, 19 References. Adapted from the source document.