Suchergebnisse

Using a sub-selection of regional climate models at 0.11 degrees (approximate to 12 km) grid resolution from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, we investigate how the spatial extent of areas associated with the most intensive daily precipitation events changes as a consequence of global warming. We address this by analysing three different warming levels: 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C. We find that not only does the intensity of such events increase, but their size will also change as a function of the warming: larger systems becomes more frequent and larger, while systems of lesser extent are reduced in numbers. ; We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's CORDEX project for its role in making available the WCRP CORDEX multi-model data set, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model outputs. D.M. and J.H.C acknowledge funding by the European Union under the Horizon 2020 project EUCP (grant agreement 776613). T. O. was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under the programme TUBITAK 2219 - International Postdoctoral Research Fellowship. ; Publisher's Version

European climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly. ; Tugba Ozturk was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under the programme TUBITAK 2219—International Postdoctoral Research Fellowship. This work also received support by the European Union under the Horizon 2020 Grant Agreement 776613, the EUCP project. ; Publisher's Version