Suchergebnisse

AbstractI test the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis using a cohort perspective on mortality. I combine data from the National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, 1986–2006, and U.S. economic data between 1902 and 1956 (403,746 respondents and 39,439 deaths), to estimate how exposures to adverse economic conditions in utero and during the first three years of life affect circulatory disease mortality risk in adulthood. I also examine cohort‐based variation in these associations. Findings suggest that in utero exposures to poor economic conditions increased risk of death from circulatory diseases. Results are consistent with theory and evidence suggesting that developmental processes early in life are strongly associated with circulatory disease susceptibility in older adulthood. However, findings indicate that the mortality effects of these early‐life exposures have likely weakened across birth cohorts.

AbstractIn this article, I examine the black-white crossover in U.S. adult all-cause mortality, emphasizing how cohort effects condition age-specific estimates of mortality risk. I employ hierarchical age-period-cohort methods on the National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files between 1986 and 2006 to show that the black-white mortality crossover can be uncrossed by factoring out period and cohort effects of mortality risk. That is, when controlling for variations in cohort and period patterns of U.S. adult mortality, the estimated age effects of non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white U.S. adult mortality risk do not cross at any age. This is the case for both men and women. Further, results show that nearly all the recent temporal change in U.S. adult mortality risk was cohort driven. The findings support the contention that the non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white U.S. adult populations experienced disparate cohort patterns of mortality risk and that these different experiences are driving the convergence and crossover of mortality risk at older ages.

AbstractThis study investigates the religious origins of the American temperance and antislavery movements in New York State. We introduce new county-level longitudinal data between 1828 and 1838 to document the onset and growth of New York temperance and antislavery societies during the movements' early stages. Data are compiled from numerous historical sources and document counts of temperance societies in 55 New York counties in years 1828, 1829, 1831, 1833, and 1834; and county-level counts of antislavery societies in years 1835, 1836, 1837, and 1838. The early growth of temperance and antislavery societies across New York counties are examined as outcomes of state building, market changes, and religious activism associated with the Second Great Awakening. We hypothesize that religious activism was positively associated with the establishment of temperance and antislavery societies in New York counties between 1828 and 1834 and between 1835 and 1838, respectively, as well as positively associated with growth in temperance and antislavery societies during these times. Results support our hypotheses with findings suggesting that evangelist activities were substantially influencing both the onset and growth of temperance and antislavery societies during the early stages of these social movements. The evidence is consistent with a "life politics" perspective of social movements and with the argument that US temperance and abolitionism were confessional protests with deep ties to the Second Great Awakening.

AbstractBirth weight in the United States declined substantially during the 1990s and 2000s. We suggest that the declines were likely due to shifts in gestational age resulting from changes in obstetric practices. Using restricted National Vital Statistics System data linked birth/infant death data for 1990–2013, we analyze trends in obstetric practices, gestational age distributions, and birth weights among first-birth singletons born to U.S. non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Latina women. We use life table techniques to analyze the joint probabilities of gestational age-specific birth and gestational age-specific obstetric intervention (i.e., induced cesarean delivery, induced vaginal delivery, not-induced cesarean delivery, and not-induced vaginal delivery) to fully document trends in obstetric practices by gestational age. We use simulation techniques to estimate counterfactual changes in birth weight distributions if obstetric practices did not change between 1990 and 2013. Results show that between 1990 and 2013, the likelihood of induced labors and cesarean deliveries increased at all gestational ages, and the gestational age distribution of U.S. births significantly shifted. Births became much less likely to occur beyond gestational week 40 and much more likely to occur during weeks 37–39. Overall, nearly 18% of births from not-induced labor and vaginal delivery at later gestational ages were replaced with births occurring at earlier gestational ages from obstetric interventions. Results suggest that if rates of obstetric practices had not changed between 1990 and 2013, then the average U.S. birth weight would have increased over this time. Findings strongly indicate that recent declines in U.S. birth weight were due to increases in induced labor and cesarean delivery at select gestational ages.

We use hierarchical cross-classified random-effects models to simultaneously measure age, period, and cohort patterns of mortality risk between 1986 and 2006 for non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black men and women with less than a high school education, a high school education, and more than a high school education. We examine all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease, lung cancer, and unpreventable cancers. Findings reveal that temporal reductions in black and white men's and women's mortality rates were driven entirely by cohort changes in mortality. Findings also demonstrate that disparate cohort effects between education groups widened the education gap in all-cause mortality risk and mortality risk from heart disease and lung cancer across this time period. Educational disparities in mortality risk from unpreventable cancers, however, did not change. This research uncovers widening educational differences in adult mortality and demonstrates that a cohort perspective provides valuable insights for understanding recent temporal changes in U.S. mortality risk.