Buch(gedruckt)#12018
Arlie Russell Hochschild: un camino hacia el corazón de la sociología
In: Monografías 309
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Aufsatz(elektronisch)#213. März 2015
Assessing drought cycles in SPI time series using a Fourier analysis
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 15, Heft 3, S. 571-585
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. In this study, drought in Portugal was assessed using 74 time series of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with a 12-month timescale and 66 years length. A clustering analysis on the SPI Principal Components loadings was performed in order to find regions where SPI drought characteristics are similar. A Fourier analysis was then applied to the SPI time series considering one SPI value per year relative to every month. The analysis focused on the December SPI time series grouped in each of the three identified clusters to investigate the existence of cycles that could be related to the return periods of droughts. The most frequent significant cycles in each of the three clusters were identified and analysed for December and the other months. Results for December show that drought periodicities vary among the three clusters, pointing to a 6-year cycle across the country and a 9.4-year cycle in central and southern Portugal. Both these cycles likely show the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the occurrence and severity of droughts in Portugal. Relative to other months it was observed that cycles varied according to the common occurrence of precipitation: for the rainy months – November, December and January – cycles are similar to those for December; for the dry months – May to September – where the lack of precipitation masks the occurrence of drought, the dominant cycles are of short duration and cannot be related to the NAO or other large circulation indices to explain drought variability; for the transition months – February, March, April and October – 6-year and 3-year cycles were identified, the latter being more strongly apparent in central and southern Portugal. NAO influence is again identified relative to the 6-year cycles. The short cycles are apparently associated with positive SPI, thus with wetness, not drought. Overall, results confirm the importance of the NAO as a driving force for dry and wet periods.
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Aufsatz(elektronisch)#316. Mai 2012
Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and drought in Portugal
In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 12, Heft 5, S. 1493-1501
ISSN: 1684-9981
Abstract. The spatial variability of precipitation and drought are investigated for Portugal using monthly precipitation from 74 stations and minimum and maximum temperature from 27 stations, covering the common period of 1941–2006. Seasonal precipitation and the corresponding percentages in the year, as well as the precipitation concentration index (PCI), was computed for all 74 stations and then used as an input matrix for an R-mode principal component analysis to identify the precipitation patterns. The standardized precipitation index at 3 and 12 month time scales were computed for all stations, whereas the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI) were computed for the stations with temperature data. The spatial patterns of drought over Portugal were identified by applying the S-mode principal component analysis coupled with varimax rotation to the drought indices matrices. The result revealed two distinct sub-regions in the country relative to both precipitation regimes and drought variability. The analysis of time variability of the PC scores of all drought indices allowed verifying that there is no linear trend indicating drought aggravation or decrease. In addition, the analysis shows that results for SPI-3, SPI-12, PDSI and MedPDSI are coherent among them.
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Open Access#42019
FCC-ee: The Lepton Collider: Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 2
Abada, A; Abbrescia, M; AbdusSalam, S. S; Abdyukhanov, I; Abelleira Fernandez, J; Abramov, A; Aburaia, M; Acar, A. O
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In response to the 2013 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics, the Future Circular Collider (FCC) study was launched, as an international collaboration hosted by CERN. This study covers a highest-luminosity high-energy lepton collider (FCC-ee) and an energy-frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh), which could, successively, be installed in the same 100 km tunnel. The scientific capabilities of the integrated FCC programme would serve the worldwide community throughout the 21st century. The FCC study also investigates an LHC energy upgrade, using FCC-hh technology. This document constitutes the second volume of the FCC Conceptual Design Report, devoted to the electron-positron collider FCC-ee. After summarizing the physics discovery opportunities, it presents the accelerator design, performance reach, a staged operation scenario, the underlying technologies, civil engineering, technical infrastructure, and an implementation plan. FCC-ee can be built with today's technology. Most of the FCC-ee infrastructure could be reused for FCC-hh. Combining concepts from past and present lepton colliders and adding a few novel elements, the FCC-ee design promises outstandingly high luminosity. This will make the FCC-ee a unique precision instrument to study the heaviest known particles (Z, W and H bosons and the top quark), offering great direct and indirect sensitivity to new physics. ; European Union [654305, 764879, 730871, 777563]; FP7 [312453] ; Open access article ; This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
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Open Access#52021
Effect of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns on planned cancer surgery for 15 tumour types in 61 countries: an international, prospective, cohort study
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Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long-term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
BASE
Open Access#62021
Effect of COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns on planned cancer surgery for 15 tumour types in 61 countries: an international, prospective, cohort study
Glasbey, James; Ademuyiwa, Adesoji; Adisa, Adewale; AlAmeer, Ehab; Arnaud, Alexis P; Ayasra, Faris; Azevedo, José; Minaya-Bravo, Ana
Glasbey, James; Ademuyiwa, Adesoji; Adisa, Adewale; AlAmeer, Ehab; Arnaud, Alexis P; Ayasra, Faris; Azevedo, José; Minaya-Bravo, Ana; Costas-Chavarri, Ainhoa; Edwards, John; Elhadi, Muhammed; Fiore, Marco; Fotopoulou, Christina; Gallo, Gaetano; Ghosh, Dhruva; Griffiths, Ewen A; Harrison, Ewen; Hutchinson, Peter; Lawani, Ismail; Lawday, Samuel; Lederhuber, Hans; Leventoglu, Sezai; Li, Elizabeth; Gomes, Gustavo Mendonça Ataíde; Mann, Harvinder; Marson, Ella J; Martin, Janet; Mazingi, Dennis; McLean, Kenneth; Modolo, Maria; Moore, Rachel; Morton, Dion; Ntirenganya, Faustin; Pata, Francesco; Picciochi, Maria; Pockney, Peter; Ramos-De la Medina, Antonio; Roberts, Keith; Roslani, April Camilla; Kottayasamy Seenivasagam, Rajkumar; Shaw, Richard; Simões, Joana Filipa Ferreira; Smart, Neil; Stewart, Grant D; Sullivan, Richard; Sundar, Sudha; Tabiri, Stephen; Taylor, Elliott H; Vidya, Raghavan; Nepogodiev, Dmitri; Bhangu, Aneel; Glasbey, James C; Bhangu, Aneel A; Siaw-Acheampong, Kwabena; Benson, Ruth A; Bywater, Edward; Chaudhry, Daoud; Dawson, Brett E; Evans, Jonathan P; Gujjuri, Rohan R; Heritage, Emily; Jones, Conor S; Kamarajah, Sivesh K; Khatri, Chetan; Khaw, Rachel A; Keatley, James M; Knight, Andrew; Mann, Harvinder S; McLean, Kenneth A; Mckay, Siobhan C; Mills, Emily C; Pellino, Gianluca; Tiwari, Abhinav; Simoes, Joana FF; Trout, Isobel M; Venn, Mary L; Wilkin, Richard JW; Smart, Neil J; Moug, Susan; Di Saverio, Salomone; Vallance, Abigail; Vimalchandran, Dale; Evans, Richard PT; Townend, Philip; McKay, Siobhan; Isaac, John; Satoi, Sohei; Coonar, Aman S; Marchbank, Adrian; Caruana, Edward J; Layton, Georgia R; Patel, Akshay; Brunelli, Alessandro; Ford, Samuel; Desai, Anant; Gronchi, Alessandro; Almond, Max; Tirotta, Fabio; Dumitra, Sinziana; Kolias, Angelos; Price, Stephen J; Fountain, Daniel M; Jenkinson, Michael D; Marcus, Hani J; Piper, Rory J; Lippa, Laura; Servadei, Franco; Esene, Ignatius; Freyschlag, Christian; Neville, Iuri; Rosseau, Gail; Schaller, Karl; Demetriades, Andreas K; Robertson, Faith; Alamri, Alex; Schache, Andrew G; Winter, Stuart C; Ho, Michael; Nankivell, Paul; Rey Biel, Juan; Batstone, Martin; Ganly, Ian; Wilkins, Alex; Singh, Jagdeep K; Thekinkattil, Dinesh; Leung, Elaine YL; Khan, Tabassum; Chiva, Luis; Sehouli, Jalid; Fagotti, Anna; Cohen, Paul; Gutelkin, Murat; Ghebre, Rahel; Konney, Thomas; Pareja, Rene; Bristow, Rob; Dowdy, Sean; Shylasree, Ts; Ng, Joe; Fujiwara, Keiichi; Lamb, Benjamin; Narahari, Krishna; McNeill, Alan; Colquhoun, Alexandra; McGrath, John S; Bromage, Steve; Barod, Ravi; Kasivisvanathan, Veeru; Klatte, Tobias; Abbott, Tom EF; Abukhalaf, Sadi; Adamina, Michel; Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O; Agarwal, Arnav; Akkulak, Murat; Alameer, Ehab; Alderson, Derek; Alakaloko, Felix; Albertsmeier, Markus; Alser, Osaid; Alshaar, Muhammad; Alshryda, Sattar; Augestad, Knut Magne; Bankhead-Kendall, Brittany K; Barlow, Emma; Beard, David; Blanco-Colino, Ruth; Brar, Amanpreet; Breen, Kerry A; Bretherton, Chris; Buarque, Igor Lima; Burke, Joshua; Chaar, Mohammad; 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Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926. Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include protected elective surgical pathways and long- term investment in surge capacity for acute care during public health emergencies to protect elective staff and services. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit, Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, Medtronic, Sarcoma UK, The Urology Foundation, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
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