Suchergebnisse

The EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which entered into force in 1997 foresees the possible establishment of a free trade area (FTA) between the parties. The aim of our study is to evaluate the possible economic, social and environmental impact of such a free trade agreement between the European Union and Russia. The results of the analysis indicate that an EU-Russia FTA will be beneficial to the Russian Federation and the EU27. Some sectors are expected to contract in the medium term, but their importance in total output is small. Over the long run, the majority of sectors in Russia are expected to expand, while only a few sectors in the EU27 are expected to register negligible decreases in output. We estimate that welfare losses from the environmental damages would be very small for Russia (possibly even smaller due to the implementation of greener technologies), and negligible for the EU. Despite some significant negative medium-term social implications in selected sectors in Russia, the overall increase in economic activity and wages, coupled with likely domestic policies aiming at easing the impact of transitional unemployment, are expected to allow for the overall reduction in poverty rates. Overall, the results show that significant welfare gains (2.24% of GDP for Russia) would accrue from the deep FTA scenario involving a significant reduction of NTBs along with additional flanking measures, particularly on competition, IPR protection and corruption, which would help re-branding of Russia as a safe and attractive investment location. Also a number of countries such as Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden are expected to see their welfare increase by around 0.5% of GDP.

The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of the removal of NTBs in trade between the EU and its selected CIS partners: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (CIS5). The report includes a discussion of methodologies of measurement of non-tariff barriers and the impact of their removal, including a review of previous studies focusing on CEE and CIS regions. Further, we employ a computable general equilibrium model encompassing the following three pillars of trade facilitation: legislative and regulatory approximation, reform of customs rules and procedures and liberalization of the access of foreign providers of services. We conclude that a reduction of NTBs and improved access to the EU market would bring significant benefits to the CIS5 countries in terms of welfare gains, GDP growth, increases in real wages and expansion of international trade. The possible welfare implications of deep integration with the EU range from 5.8% of GDP in Ukraine to sizeable expected gains in Armenia (3.1%), Russia (2.8%), Azerbaijan (1.8%) and Georgia (1.7%).

Global value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries over the past three decades. Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19: Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The book undertakes the following: *Assesses what the impact of previous crises, such as the global financial crisis of 2008–09, can say about of the resilience of GVC firms to shocks *Examines what high-frequency data on trade flows can show about the impact of COVID-19 during the sharp global recession of 2020*Uses discussions with GVC firms to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of—and their responses to—the COVID-19 shock *Explores simulations from a global economic model to assess the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on low- and middle-income countries and key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, the rise of trade restrictions, and policy responses to global warming*Asks what steps countries and international institutions can take to enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries to future shocks.The analysis shows that well-operating GVCs are a source of resilience more than a source of vulnerability. Moreover, steps to maintain and enhance trade contribute to managing a crisis and recovery, while measures to reshore production make all countries worse off. This economic crisis offers countries an opportunity to reshape the global economy into a greener, more resilient, and inclusive system that is better equipped for a changing world. Trade is a powerful tool for achieving this aim

This report provides a multifaceted diagnostic overview of Lesotho's export competitiveness, including an analysis of the macroeconomic environment in which exporters and importers operate in Lesotho; level, growth, composition, and market share performance of Lesotho's exports; the evolution of FDI inflows and their sectoral composition; the diversification of products and markets, as well as the quality and sophistication of Lesotho's exports. It builds on this with CGE analysis of potential impacts based on specific trade-related scenarios as well as diagnostic tools to facilitate the analysis of global and regional value chain participation and integration. The report then formulates several recommendations that could enhance export competitiveness, deepen Lesotho's integration in global and regional value chains in goods and services and strengthen the country's ability to respond to changing external environment.

This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China's expected transformation—economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption—and estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world, with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that an average annual slowdown of gross domestic product in China of 1 percent over 2016–30 is expected to result in a decline of gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1 percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the past trends scenario by 2030. However, if China's transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancing through higher overall imports by China and positive terms of trade effects for its trading partners. If global supply responds positively to the shifts in relative prices and the new sources of consumer demand from China, a substantial rebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impact on the global economy. Economic growth could turn positive and higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trends scenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolated negative effects of China's slowdown, which slightly increase the incidence of poverty. Overall, China's slowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increase gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percent by 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country.