Suchergebnisse

AbstractIntroductionIn 2010, the WHO recommended women living with HIV breastfeed for 12 months while taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) to balance breastfeeding benefits against HIV transmission risks. To inform the 2016 WHO guidelines, we updated prior research on the impact of breastfeeding duration on HIV‐free infant survival (HFS) by incorporating maternal ART duration, infant/child mortality and mother‐to‐child transmission data.MethodsUsing the Cost‐Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)‐Infant model, we simulated the impact of breastfeeding duration on 24‐month HFS among HIV‐exposed, uninfected infants. We defined "optimal" breastfeeding durations as those maximizing 24‐month HFS. We varied maternal ART duration, mortality rates among breastfed infants/children, and relative risk of mortality associated with replacement feeding ("RRRF"), modelled as a multiplier on all‐cause mortality for replacement‐fed infants/children (range: 1 [no additional risk] to 6). The base‐case simulated RRRF = 3, median infant mortality, and 24‐month maternal ART duration.ResultsIn the base‐case, HFS ranged from 83.1% (no breastfeeding) to 90.2% (12‐months breastfeeding). Optimal breastfeeding durations increased with higher RRRF values and longer maternal ART durations, but did not change substantially with variation in infant mortality rates. Optimal breastfeeding durations often exceeded the previous WHO recommendation of 12 months.ConclusionsIn settings with high RRRF and long maternal ART durations, HFS is maximized when mothers breastfeed longer than the previously‐recommended 12 months. In settings with low RRRF or short maternal ART durations, shorter breastfeeding durations optimize HFS. If mothers are supported to use ART for longer periods of time, it is possible to reduce transmission risks and gain the benefits of longer breastfeeding durations.

ObjectiveIn Brazil, universal provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been guaranteed free of charge to eligible HIV‐positive patients since December 1996. We sought to quantify the survival benefits of ART attributable to this programme.MethodsWe used a previously published microsimulation model of HIV disease and treatment (CEPAC‐International) and data from Brazil to estimate life expectancy increase for HIV‐positive patients initiating ART in Brazil. We divided the period of 1997 to 2014 into six eras reflecting increased drug regimen efficacy, regimen availability and era‐specific mean CD4 count at ART initiation. Patients were simulated first without ART and then with ART. The 2014‐censored and lifetime survival benefits attributable to ART in each era were calculated as the product of the number of patients initiating ART in a given era and the increase in life expectancy attributable to ART in that era.ResultsIn total, we estimated that 598,741 individuals initiated ART. Projected life expectancy increased from 2.7, 3.3, 4.1, 4.9, 5.5 and 7.1 years without ART to 11.0, 17.5, 20.7, 23.0, 25.3, and 27.0 years with ART in Eras 1 through 6, respectively. Of the total projected lifetime survival benefit of 9.3 million life‐years, 16% (or 1.5 million life‐years) has been realized as of December 2014.ConclusionsProvision of ART through a national programme has led to dramatic survival benefits in Brazil, the majority of which are still to be realized. Improvements in initial and subsequent ART regimens and higher CD4 counts at ART initiation have contributed to these increasing benefits.

AbstractIntroductionMen who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) in Brazil experience high rates of HIV infection. We examined the clinical and economic outcomes of implementing a pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme in these populations.MethodsWe used the Cost‐Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)‐International model of HIV prevention and treatment to evaluate two strategies: the current standard of care (SOC) in Brazil, including universal ART access (No PrEP strategy); and the current SOC plus daily tenofovir/emtracitabine PrEP (PrEP strategy) until age 50. Mean age (31 years, SD 8.4 years), age‐stratified annual HIV incidence (age ≤ 40 years: 4.3/100 PY; age > 40 years: 1.0/100 PY), PrEP effectiveness (43% HIV incidence reduction) and PrEP drug costs ($23/month) were from Brazil‐based sources. The analysis focused on direct medical costs of HIV care. We measured the comparative value of PrEP in 2015 United States dollars (USD) per year of life saved (YLS). Willingness‐to‐pay threshold was based on Brazil's annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP; 2015: $8540 USD).ResultsLifetime HIV infection risk among high‐risk MSM and TGW was 50.5% with No PrEP and decreased to 40.1% with PrEP. PrEP increased per‐person undiscounted (discounted) life expectancy from 36.8 (20.7) years to 41.0 (22.4) years and lifetime discounted HIV‐related medical costs from $4100 to $8420, which led to an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $2530/YLS. PrEP remained cost‐effective (<1x GDP) under plausible variation in key parameters, including PrEP effectiveness and cost, initial cohort age and HIV testing frequency on/off PrEP.ConclusionDaily tenofovir/emtracitabine PrEP among MSM and TGW at high risk of HIV infection in Brazil would increase life expectancy and be highly cost‐effective.