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In: African affairs: the journal of the Royal African Society, Band 98, Heft 391, S. 265-267
ISSN: 1468-2621
Intro -- Title Page -- Contents -- Epigraphs -- Prologue: We Must Stop Shopping but We Can't Stop Shopping -- I. First Days -- 1. What We Give Up and What We Hang On To -- 2. We Don't Shop Equally, So We Won't Stop Equally -- 3. It's Not that Time Turns Weird, It's a Different Kind of Time -- 4. Suddenly We're Winning the Fight against Climate Change -- 5. We Need to Get Used to the Night Again -- II. Collapse -- 6. The End of Growth Is Not the End of Economics -- 7. The Consumption Disaster Begins, the Disaster of Everyday Life Is Over -- 8. Can Advertising Turn into the Opposite of Itself? -- 9. We Adapt to Not-Shopping More Quickly than You Think -- 10. We May Need to See the Ruins to Know It's Time to Build Something New -- III. Adaptation -- 11. A Stronger, Not a Weaker, Attachment to Our Things -- 12. Fast Fashion Cannot Rule but It May Not Have to Die -- 13. Business Plays the Long, Long, Long, Long Game -- 14. If We're No Longer Consumers, What Are We Instead? -- 15. We Are Still Consuming Way Too Much (Part One: Inconspicuous Consumption) -- 16. We Are Still Consuming Way Too Much (Part Two: Money) -- IV. Transformation -- 17. We Finally, Actually, Save the Whales -- 18. We Need a Better Word than Happiness for Where This Ends Up -- 19. Now We're All Shopping in Cyberspace? -- 20. It's Like a World with Fewer People but without Losing the People -- 21. One Hundred and Fifty Thousand Years Later . . . -- Epilogue: There's a Better Way to Stop Shopping . . . -- Acknowledgements -- Source Notes -- Index -- About the Author -- Also by J.B. MacKinnon -- Copyright -- About the Publisher.
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
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