Suchergebnisse

This article applies a short-term computable general equilibrium model for Zimbabwe to trace the direct and indirect effects of policy on the macroeconomy and tourism. The results show that the main reason why benefits from tourism are bypassing the country is because of poorly sequenced macroeconomic policies and a negative political climate. As and when the national political situation stabilises and the economy begins to grow again, an urgent macroeconomic thrust should be to implement a credible macroeconomic stabilisation programme, consisting in the main of reduced fiscal deficits, flexible foreign exchange markets and tight monetary policies to rein in inflation. However, because Zimbabwe is in arrears, there can be no programmes or lending with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Getting the budget in order without aid money will be very tough indeed, and the alternative is worse. It means debt deflation by means of hyperinflation. (Dev South Afr/DÜI) (CGE= Computable General Equilibrium)

A computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model is applied to assess the potential short-term effects on the South African economy of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With a particular focus on distributional outcomes, two simulations are run, a mild and a severe scenario. The findings show significant evidence of decline in economic growth and employment, with the decline harsher for the severe scenario. The microeconomic results show that the pandemic moves the income distribution curve such that more households fall under the poverty line while at the same time, inequality declines. The latter result is driven by the disproportionate decline in incomes of richer households while the poorest of the poor are cushioned by government social grants that are kept intact during the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding and its economic modelling as well as the data used to operationalise the model will need to be updated and improved upon as more information about the disease and the economy becomes available.