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Personal violence, has declined substantially in Europe from 1200-2010. The conventional wisdom is that the state's monopoly on violence is the cause of this happy result. I find some evidence that does not support this hypothesis. I suggest an alternative hypothesis that could explain at least some of the reduction in violence, namely that the invention and proliferation of compact, concealable, ready-to-use firearms caused potential assailants to recalculate the probability of a successful assault and seek alternatives to violence. I use structural change models to test this hypothesis and find breakpoints consistent with the invention of certain firearms.

This study compares national female and male homicide victimization rates (HVRs) during 1930–1995. The trends are almost the same, even when separated by race, in spite of large gender differences in HVR levels. When regressing female and male HVRs on demographic, economic, social control, and other variables, the coefficients differ between the sexes only to the extent expected by chance. The important predictors relate to offenders and are independent of the type of victim; the incapacitation impact of prison populations is especially strong for all HVRs. This is consistent with others' findings that men who murder women, and even those who commit sexual and partner assaults, have criminal records nearly as bad as offenders generally. These findings have implications for several broader topics: the usefulness of data dis‐aggregation, the usefulness of crime situation theories, the reasons for declining homicide rates, and strategies for reducing violence against women.