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This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.

The bioeconomy comprises sectors that use renewable biological resources to produce food, materials and energy. It is at the centre of several global and EU challenges in the near future such as the creation of growth and jobs, climate change, food security and resource depletion. "Bioeconomy 2030†projects a reference scenario ('business as usual') and compares it with two distinct policy narratives ('Outward-looking' and 'Inward-looking') to understand the drivers of EU's bioeconomy up to 2030, assess its resilience to fulfil such diverse policy goals and identify potential trade-offs. As a motor of jobs and growth, the results indicate that the importance of the bio-based sectors is expected to dwindle somewhat. The factors underlying this result are mainly structural and related to comparably lower macroeconomic growth rates in the EU. It is, however, conceivable that improved economic development or productivity improvements linked to EU investments in, for instance bio-based innovation, would produce a recognisably more optimistic outlook for the EU bioeconomy. ; Published

Halving per capita food waste and reducing food losses along production and supply chains is one of the objectives fixed by the United Nations among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study employs a system-wide modelling approach, to simulate economic impacts of households' food waste reduction in 2030, focusing on the European Union. The paper provides market, food security, biophysical and environmental indicators resulting from food commodity specific waste reductions by EU households. The scenarios explicitly account for associated costs paid by food manufacturers derived from adjustments in the packaging, labelling and logistics. The model shows, under a series of market assumptions, a possible increase in household savings, a fall in agri-food production and a minor negative macroeconomic impact due to household food waste reductions. On the other hand, the effects on environmental indicators such as land usage, GHG emissions and water abstraction are positive. Future research on several aspects of the food waste topic is needed to better integrate all economic aspects. ; Published

Halving per capita food waste and reducing food losses along production and supply chains is one of the objectives fixed by the United Nations among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study employs a system-wide modelling approach, to simulate economic impacts of households' food waste reduction in 2030, focusing on the European Union. The paper provides market, food security, biophysical and environmental indicators resulting from food commodity specific waste reductions by EU households. The scenarios explicitly account for associated costs paid by food manufacturers derived from adjustments in the packaging, labelling and logistics. The model shows, under a series of market assumptions, a possible increase in household savings, a fall in agri-food production and a minor negative macroeconomic impact due to household food waste reductions. On the other hand, the effects on environmental indicators such as land usage, GHG emissions and water abstraction are positive. Future research on several aspects of the food waste topic is needed to better integrate all economic aspects.

The concept of 'bioeconomy' is gathering momentum in European Union (EU) policy circles as a sustainable model of growth to reconcile continued wealth generation and employment with bio-based sustainable resource usage. Unfortunately, in the literature an economy-wide quantitative assessment covering the full diversity of this sector is lacking due to relatively poor data availability for disaggregated bio-based activities. This research represents a first step by employing social accounting matrices (SAMs) for each EU27 member encompassing a highly disaggregated treatment of traditional 'bio-based' agricultural and food activities, as well as additional identifiable bioeconomic activities from the national accounts data. Employing backward-linkage (BL), forward-linkage (FL) and employment multipliers, the aim is to profile and assess comparative structural patterns both across bioeconomic sectors and EU Member States. The results indicate six clusters of EU member countries with homogeneous bioeconomy structures. Within cluster statistical tests reveal a high tendency toward 'backward orientation' or demand driven wealth generation, whilst inter-cluster statistical comparisons by bio-based sector show only a moderate degree of heterogeneous BL wealth generation and, with the exception of only two sectors, a uniformly homogeneous degree of FL wealth generation. With the exception of forestry, fishing and wood activities, bio-based employment generation prospects are below non bioeconomy activities. Finally, milk and dairy are established as 'key sectors'.

This paper provides a model-based impact analysis of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the four main regional blocks in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It uses the Modular Agricultural GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET), a multi-region computable general equilibrium model. To provide a comprehensive analysis, other key EU policies, such as trade or GHG policies, are modelled as well. A thoroughly prepared reference scenario is contrasted with a counterfactual scenario, where the CAP is removed and ambitious trade agreements with non-African EU trade partners are implemented. Results provide interesting insights into the identification and quantification of - mainly indirect - effects of the CAP in SSA

The concept of 'bioeconomy' is gathering momentum in European Union (EU) policy circles as a sustainable model of growth to reconcile continued wealth generation and employment with bio-based sustainable resource usage. Unfortunately, in the literature an economy-wide quantitative assessment covering the full diversity of this sector is lacking due to relatively poor data availability for disaggregated bio-based activities. This research represents a first step by employing social accounting matrices (SAMs) for each EU27 member encompassing a highly disaggregated treatment of traditional 'bio-based' agricultural and food activities, as well as additional identifiable bioeconomic activities from the national accounts data. Employing backward-linkage (BL), forward-linkage (FL) and employment multipliers, the aim is to profile and assess comparative structural patterns both across bioeconomic sectors and EU Member States. The results indicate six clusters of EU member countries with homogeneous bioeconomy structures. Within cluster statistical tests reveal a high tendency toward 'backward orientation' or demand driven wealth generation, whilst inter-cluster statistical comparisons by bio-based sector show only a moderate degree of heterogeneous BL wealth generation and, with the exception of only two sectors, a uniformly homogeneous degree of FL wealth generation. With the exception of forestry, fishing and wood activities, bio-based employment generation prospects are below non bioeconomy activities. Finally, milk and dairy are established as 'key sectors'. ; Published

Launched and adopted on 13 February 2012, Europe's Bioeconomy Strategy addresses the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into vital products and bio-energy. The Strategy proposes answers to the challenges Europe and the world are facing, in particular the increasing populations that must be fed, depletion of natural resources, impacts of ever increasing environmental pressures and climate change. In addition, on 25 September 2015, the UN General Assembly formally adopted the universal, integrated and transformative 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, along with a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals and 169 associated targets. The EU has committed to implement the SDGs both in its internal and external policies. A newly developed MAGNET SDG Insights module enables the impact of policy on SDG indicators to be evaluated in an ex-ante framework. The module carries the advantage of translating complex modelling results into the impact on SDG indicators which are fast becoming the common language of global impact assessment. Specifically, the new module includes 60 official and additional indicators, covering 12 of the 17 SDGs for each region of the world. This paper evaluates a range of selected scenarios in terms of the impacts on the SDGs, using the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET), a GTAP-based global economic simulation extended to include second generation biofuels, bioelectricity and waste, biochemicals and a suite of SDG indicators. This approach provides a unique insight into the synergies or trade-offs in scenarios where several market instruments are operating simultaneously and allows for a more coherent approach to policy implementation. The results show the contribution of economic development and policy changes to societal challenges in 2030, both in terms of synergies and trade-offs

Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of contributors -- Preface -- Acronyms and abbreviations -- 1 Scope and objectives -- Part 1 Literature reviews and new findings -- 2 Volatility in the after-crisis period: A literature review of recent empirical research -- 3 Has agricultural price volatility increased since 2007? -- 4 Medium-term drivers of food markets' variability and uncertainty -- 5 Transparency of food pricing in the European Union -- 6 A review of the effects of contextual factors on price volatility transmission in food supply chains -- 7 Impacts of increased food prices and volatility on households' welfare -- Part 2 The views of some stakeholders -- 8 Are derivatives introducing distortions in agricultural markets? -- 9 The view of farmers: German pig producers -- 10 Mitigating the effects of agricultural price volatility: A European cereal grower's point of view -- 11 Milk and dairy products' price volatility: EU dairy cooperatives attitude towards volatility -- 12 Coping with food price volatility: The contribution of local food reserves -- Part 3 Policy discussion and conclusions -- 13 Assessment of national policies in developing countries to combat and mitigate the effects of agricultural markets' excessive price volatility -- 14 Price volatility perceptions, management strategies, and policy options in EU food supply chains -- 15 Book summary and ULYSSES project's conclusions -- Index.

The threats of climate change, food security, resource depletion and energy security are driving society towards a sustainable low-carbon future. Within this paradigm, biomass plays an invaluable role in meeting the food, feed, energy and material needs of future generations. Current EU thinking advocates biomass for high-value materials, which is not aligned with EU public policy support for 'lower value' bioenergy applications. 'High-technology' and 'no bioenergy mandate' pathways explore market conditions that generate a more equitable distribution between competing biomass conversion technologies and competing biomass and fossil technologies. In achieving greater equity, these pathways ease biomass market tensions; enhance EU food security; improve EU biobased trade balances; accelerate biomaterial sectors' output performance and favour macroeconomic growth. Moreover, an additional 80% increase in the oil price signals a tipping point in favour of first generation biofuels, whilst simultaneously boosting output in advanced material conversion technologies even more than the high-technology pathway. ; Published

As the EU is moving towards a low carbon economy and seeks to further develop its renewable energy policy, this paper quantitatively investigates the impact of plausible energy market reforms from the perspective of bio-renewables. Employing a state-of-the-art biobased variant of a computable general equilibrium model, this study assesses the perceived medium-term benefits, risks and trade-offs which arise from an advanced biofuels plan, two exploratory scenarios of a more 'sustainable' conventional biofuels plan and a 'no-mandate' scenario. Consistent with more recent studies, none of the scenarios considered present significant challenges to EU food-security or agricultural land usage. An illustrative advanced biofuels plan simulation requires non-trivial public support to implement whilst a degree of competition for biomass with (high-value) advanced biomass material industries is observed. On the other hand, it significantly alleviates land use pressures, whilst lignocellulose biomass prices are not expected to increase to unsustainable levels. Clearly, these observations are subject to assumptions on technological change, sustainable biomass limits, expected trends in fossil fuel prices and EU access to third-country trade. With these same caveats in mind, the switch to increased bioethanol production does not result in significant market tensions in biomass markets. ; Published

Under the auspices of the EU's new Circular Economy Action Plan and Bioeconomy Strategy, the usage of sustainably renewable biomass for bio-based chemicals is a part-solution for addressing the multidimensional challenges of (inter alia) growth and employment, food and energy security, climate change and biodiversity. Unfortunately, the lack of a formal system of European data classification and collection presents a major obstacle to measuring, monitoring and ex-ante modelling of the bio-based chemicals sector, which clouds the ability to make science-based policy and legislative judgements. Employing a combination of different data sources and plausible assumptions, this paper seeks to overcome some of these data gaps through the compilation of a meaningful set of economic and sustainability indicators for specific bio-based chemical activities and products. Due to the variety of data sources employed for each indicator, a data quality index is constructed, whilst rigorous comparisons with other studies and further critical discussion reaffirms the general observation of poor data quality. Subject to these data and methodological limitations, this paper analyses the performance of bio-based chemical industries. As long as official data sources lack adequate information systems, the current paper serves as a springboard for lowering the data 'entry costs' behind this intricate sector, encouraging further knowledge-sharing and serving as a replication template for other regions. ; Published

The concept of 'bioeconomy' is receiving increased attention in policy and business circles. The European Commission (EC) has initiated the Bioeconomy Strategy which is a signal of intent that the EU seeks to meet the challenge of reconciling responsible-resource usage respecting sustainability criteria, with wealth-generation. To this aim, the EC's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has been entrusted to implement a Bioeconomy Information Systems Observatory within which the objective is to develop an ongoing coherent picture of the activities of this sector, whilst developing forward-looking tools of analysis to help respond to the aforementioned challenge. This paper provides a discussion on the research activities which are currently under development at the JRC. Whilst the scale of ambition of the Bioeconomy Observatory is significant, it is recognised that much of the research conducted so-far remains work-in-progress and is therefore only a starting point to fully capturing the nuances of this diverse and complex sector ; Published