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The Indo-Pacific debate is taking place amid great power competition and the severe impact of COVID-19 on geopolitics. How should ASEAN push forward on regional defence diplomacy?

This paper evaluates the impact of local and external economic uncertainty shocks on China's exchange market pressure from a time-varying perspective. We first construct a simple behavioral model to provide some economic background for our empirical analysis. The model identifies two channels, namely market sentiment and market demand, through which economic uncertainty has a time-varying impact on exchange market pressure. Notably, we calculate a new exchange market pressure index for China by considering China's practice. Using the economic policy uncertainty index as a proxy for economic uncertainty and our new estimates of China's exchange market pressure, we employ a novel TVP-VAR model controlling for over-parameterization to a monthly dataset from January 2001 to October 2020 to analyze the impact of China's and U.S. economic policy uncertainties on China's exchange market pressure. Our empirical findings robustly show that an upsurge in U.S. EPU is followed by appreciation pressure of the RMB against the dollar, while a hike in China's EPU triggers devaluation pressure on the RMB. In addition, the impact of economic policy uncertainty has considerable time variation in magnitude, especially after mid-2011, showing a trade-off mechanism between the effects of domestic and foreign economic uncertainties on China's exchange market pressure. Moreover, we attribute the time-varying features to the changes in China's dependence on the U.S. and in the exchange rate flexibility. Finally, China should further improve the exchange rate flexibility, reduce its dependence on the U.S. and develop a more diversified currency basket in the exchange rate formation mechanism. JEL: F31 C50 E70

This paper presents new empirical evidence concerning the time-varying responses of China's macroeconomy to U.S. economic uncertainty shocks through a novel TVP-VAR model. The results robustly reveal that a rise in U.S. economic uncertainty would exert sizable, persistent, and significant detrimental effects on China's gross domestic product (GDP), price level, and short-term interest rate during the period when common shocks take place, such as the global financial crisis around 2008, whereas small and transient effects in the tranquil times. Therefore, China should diversify its international linkages and gradually reduce the dependence on the United States into a certain range to shield the domestic economy, as well as improve the independence of monetary policy. Furthermore, to withstand unfavorable external shocks, China should be prudent on greater opening-up and carry out more intensive intervention when common shocks hit the world economy. Finally, investors should be alert to the potential detrimental impact of U.S. economic uncertainty on Chinese assets' fundamentals.

Title Page -- Table of Contents -- Detailed Table of Contents -- Preface: An Overview of Crime Simulation -- Section I: The Role of Simulation in Crime Research -- Chapter I: The Need for Systematic Replication and Tests of Validity in Simulation -- Chapter II: Realistic Spatial Backcloth is not that Important in Agent Based Simulation: An Illustration from Simulating Perceptual Deterrence -- Chapter III: Visualization of Criminal Activity in an Urban Population -- Chapter IV: GIS-Based Simulation and Visualization of Urban Landuse Change -- Section II: Streets, Networks, and Crime Distribution -- Chapter V: Modelling Pedestrian Movement to Measure On-Street Crime Risk -- Chapter VI: Core Models for State-of-the-Art Microscopic Traffic Simulation and Key Elements for Applications -- Chapter VII: Simulating Urban Dynamics Using Cellular Antomata -- Chapter VIII: Space-Time Measures of Crime Diffusion -- Section III: Crime Event and Pattern Simulations -- Chapter IX: Synthesis Over Analysis: Towards an Ontology for Volume Crime Simulation -- Chapter X: Offender Mobility and Crime Pattern Formation from First Principles -- Chapter XI: Crime Simulation Using GIS and Artificial Intelligent Agents -- Chapter XII: Characterizing the Spatio-Temporal Aspects of Routine Activities and the Geographic Distribution of Street Robbery -- Chapter XIII: Mastermind: Computational Modeling and Simulation of Spatiotemporal Aspects of Crime in Urban Environments -- Chapter XIV: The Simulation of the Journey to Residential Burglary -- Chapter XV: Simulating Crime Against Properties Using Swarm Intelligence and Social Networks -- Chapter XVI: FraudSim: Simulating Fraud in a Public Delivery Program -- Section IV: Crime Justice Operation Simulations -- Chapter XVII: Development of an Intelligent Patrol Routing System Using GIS and Computer Simulations.

Studies show that the deterioration of family bonds and financial difficulty are barriers to a successful reintegration after incarceration. However, how family, community, and correction agencies simultaneously affect individuals' illicit drug use during reentry is rarely examined. This study draws insights from the systemic model of social disorganization and examines the joint effects of private, parochial, and public levels of social control on post-release drug use. We used a longitudinal data set that captured family relationships, community cohesiveness, and reentry program participation of released prisoners. Findings provide empirical support for the application of the systemic model of social disorganization on illicit drug during reentry. The various levels of social control defined by this theory were found to exhibit significant and inhibitory effects on individuals' drug use after release. This study advances our understanding of individuals' reentry outcomes by highlighting the joint influence of family, community, and correction agencies. Policy implications for addressing post-release drug use are presented.

ABSTRACTWe consider a game of endogenous timing with observable delay in a mixed duopoly with endogenous vertical differentiation in the context of sequential quality and price choice. We find that a simultaneous play in the first opportunity at each stage turns out to be the unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium, which contrasts with the endogenous timing in a purely private duopoly.