Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence: background. As indicated in the publication, the "Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU" [1] The Copyright notice of the European Commission [2] further clarifies [3] how "Unless otherwise indicated (e.g. in individual copyright notices), content owned by the EU [.] is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. This means that reuse is allowed, provided appropriate credit is given and changes are indicated". References [1] European Commission, 2011. Commission Decision of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (2011/833/EU). Official Journal of the European Union 54(L 330), 39-42. http://data.europa.eu/eli/dec/2011/833/oj [2] https://web.archive.org/web/20190905/https://ec.europa.eu/info/legal-notice_en [3] European Commission, 2019. Commission Decision of 22 February 2019 adopting Creative Commons as an open licence under the European Commission's reuse policy. European Commission, C(2019) 1655 final. https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regdoc/rep/3/2019/EN/C-2019-1655-F1-EN-MAIN-PART-1.PDF (archived version: https://tinyurl.com/C2019-1655-final) ; International audience ; Forests cover over a third of the total land area of Europe. In recent years, large forest fires have repeatedly affected Europe, in particular the Mediterranean countries. Fire danger is influenced by weather in the short term, and by climate when considering longer time intervals. In this work, the emphasis is on the direct influence on fire danger of weather and climate.For climate analysis at the continental scale, a daily high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) was considered up to the end of the century, and a mitigation scenario that limits global warming to 2 °C was also assessed. To estimate fire danger, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was used. FWI provides a uniform numerical rating of relative fire ...