Malgré un taux de croissance du PIB supérieur à la moyenne de l'UE-15, les conditions du marché du travail dans certains pays d'Europe centrale et orientale (PECO) restent problématiques. En particulier, les taux de chômage ont mis du temps à se rapprocher de la moyenne européenne et le taux de participation à la population active reste inférieur aux normes européennes. Ce non-emploi est d'autant plus problématique que les hétérogénéités régionales dans l'UE se sont accrues au fil du temps. Nous utilisons l'approche de Blanchard and Katz [1992] afin de comprendre comment le taux de chômage et le taux de participation réagissent, au niveau régional, lorsqu'un choc d'emploi se produit. Nous constatons que dans l'UE-28, il y a un ajustement effectif de l'offre de travail, avec une réponse à court terme et temporaire des taux de chômage et d'activité. Nous ne trouvons pas de différences significatives entre l'UE-15 et les PECO et nous concluons que les dynamiques de réaction du marché du travail convergent au sein de l'UE dans son ensemble. Cependant, en ce qui concerne la structure globale de l'emploi, nous soulignons le rôle de la réallocation sectorielle de la main-d'œuvre dans l'augmentation de la flexibilité du marché du travail. Enfin, nous soulignons la plus grande sensibilité de la participation des femmes aux chocs de l'emploi.
Recursively in the literature, public spending on education is found to have an ambiguous impact on economic growth. Using World Development Indicators from the World Bank, we revisit an endogenous growth model from Blankenau et al. (2007), over the last thirty years. Considering the fiscal effect, we analyse the empirical relationship between public spending on education and economic development. Despite having a positive and significant impact on the overall group of 65 countries belonging to upper-middle and high-income countries, our main results are not robust to subgroups , focusing on the economic development. Once we control for the performance of public expenditure, to effectively generate human capital, we find a positive and significant impact from increasing expenditure on education, in what we call "performing countries". Our results demonstrate that increasing spending on education cannot be growth enhancing without considering the prism of performance.
Recursively in the literature, public spending on education is found to have an ambiguous impact on economic growth. Using World Development Indicators from the World Bank, we revisit an endogenous growth model from Blankenau et al. (2007), over the last thirty years. Considering the fiscal effect, we analyse the empirical relationship between public spending on education and economic development. Despite having a positive and significant impact on the overall group of 65 countries belonging to upper-middle and high-income countries, our main results are not robust to subgroups , focusing on the economic development. Once we control for the performance of public expenditure, to effectively generate human capital, we find a positive and significant impact from increasing expenditure on education, in what we call "performing countries". Our results demonstrate that increasing spending on education cannot be growth enhancing without considering the prism of performance.
Recursively in the literature, public spending on education is found to have an ambiguous impact on economic growth. Using World Development Indicators from the World Bank, we revisit an endogenous growth model from Blankenau et al. (2007), over the last thirty years. Considering the fiscal effect, we analyse the empirical relationship between public spending on education and economic development. Despite having a positive and significant impact on the overall group of 65 countries belonging to upper-middle and high-income countries, our main results are not robust to subgroups , focusing on the economic development. Once we control for the performance of public expenditure, to effectively generate human capital, we find a positive and significant impact from increasing expenditure on education, in what we call "performing countries". Our results demonstrate that increasing spending on education cannot be growth enhancing without considering the prism of performance.
Recursively in the literature, public spending on education is found to have an ambiguous impact on economic growth. Using World Development Indicators from the World Bank, we revisit an endogenous growth model from Blankenau et al. (2007), over the last thirty years. Considering the fiscal effect, we analyse the empirical relationship between public spending on education and economic development. Despite having a positive and significant impact on the overall group of 65 countries belonging to upper-middle and high-income countries, our main results are not robust to subgroups , focusing on the economic development. Once we control for the performance of public expenditure, to effectively generate human capital, we find a positive and significant impact from increasing expenditure on education, in what we call "performing countries". Our results demonstrate that increasing spending on education cannot be growth enhancing without considering the prism of performance.
"The subject matter of international economics, then, consists of issues raised by the special problems of economic interaction between sovereign states." (Krugman et al., 2011)Institutional innovation fosters the development of these interactions. Thus, European states, on a social background, try to benefit from the cooperation leverage effect, to turn centuries of conflicts, into an economic asset. Such a construction and its pantagruelian twists and turns, as a fusion of history and empires, not far from Victor Hugo's utopia "the United-State of Europe", demonstrates the incredible ingenuity, national heterogeneities develop to refine the paradigm "Europe".In this thesis, we propose to shed some light on some of these challenges, with regard to the countries which, not half a century ago, marked the fracture of the continent, CEECs. These economies, from transition to developed economy, are an unprecedented case study, to understand international economic challenges. After explaining the general framework, in which this work takes place (Chapter 1), we investigate the impact of the ECB's monetary policy, on the peripheral countries of the euro zone, i.e., EU non-Euro members. In chapter 2, we construct two groups of countries, depending on their exchange rate regime (fixed or flexible). Drawn upon this construction, using monetary, price and output data, we measure the impact of a monetary shock, impulsed by the ECB, on the CEECs. We find that economic integration induces spillover effects, that influence domestic monetary decisions. As expected, pegged economies are more strongly affected, by the monetary policy of the ECB. However, in both groups of countries, we find that spillovers tend to have less impact, on the volatility of our variables (GDP and prices), over the last decade. We explain this, via a more efficient exchange rate channel, to absorb shocks (in flexible exchange) and an increased credibility of domestic monetary institutions.We highlighted that spillovers effects significantly influence ...
"The subject matter of international economics, then, consists of issues raised by the special problems of economic interaction between sovereign states." (Krugman et al., 2011)Institutional innovation fosters the development of these interactions. Thus, European states, on a social background, try to benefit from the cooperation leverage effect, to turn centuries of conflicts, into an economic asset. Such a construction and its pantagruelian twists and turns, as a fusion of history and empires, not far from Victor Hugo's utopia "the United-State of Europe", demonstrates the incredible ingenuity, national heterogeneities develop to refine the paradigm "Europe".In this thesis, we propose to shed some light on some of these challenges, with regard to the countries which, not half a century ago, marked the fracture of the continent, CEECs. These economies, from transition to developed economy, are an unprecedented case study, to understand international economic challenges. After explaining the general framework, in which this work takes place (Chapter 1), we investigate the impact of the ECB's monetary policy, on the peripheral countries of the euro zone, i.e., EU non-Euro members. In chapter 2, we construct two groups of countries, depending on their exchange rate regime (fixed or flexible). Drawn upon this construction, using monetary, price and output data, we measure the impact of a monetary shock, impulsed by the ECB, on the CEECs. We find that economic integration induces spillover effects, that influence domestic monetary decisions. As expected, pegged economies are more strongly affected, by the monetary policy of the ECB. However, in both groups of countries, we find that spillovers tend to have less impact, on the volatility of our variables (GDP and prices), over the last decade. We explain this, via a more efficient exchange rate channel, to absorb shocks (in flexible exchange) and an increased credibility of domestic monetary institutions.We highlighted that spillovers effects significantly influence the CEECs, with direct impact upon domestic monetary challenges. The first phase of the transition, during the 90's, has been hit by high level of both inflation and unemployment. Over the last years, inflation seems to be under control, and we observe relatively low unemployment rate, closed to its natural level. This could suggest that monetary credibility has been restored. However, in the process of accession to the Euro zone, monetary leeway is becoming increasingly restricted.Throughout Chapter 3, we use the well-known Phillips curve, to understand the relationship between the unemployment rate and price developments, as a proxy for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The Baltic States, Slovenia and Slovakia are perfect candidates to measure the impact of changes in exchange rate regimes, during accession to the EA. During the ERM-II, the relationship is negative and significant. However, the EA entry is prima facie evidence of a flattened Phillips curve. We explain this result by the fact that in a monetary union, "small" economies do not have sufficient power, to significantly influence monetary policy decisions.To be fully effective, the single policy of the ECB must confront, relatively homogeneous economies. This homogeneity transcends the monetary dimension and directly affects the real economy (evidenced by the Phillips curve). The impacts of asymmetric shocks are smoothed through the adjustment mechanisms in an optimal union. Among these mechanisms, we highlight the role of the labour market, which requires flexibility (of wages) and increased factor mobility. Chapter 4 analyses regional adjustment mechanisms, after an exogenous employment shock. Using regional NUTS-II data, we build a VAR panel, to understand these mechanisms. (.) ; "Le sujet de l'économie internationale consiste, donc, en des questions soulevées, par les problèmes particuliers, de l'interaction économique, entre États souverains." (Krugman et al., 2011)L'innovation institutionnelle se met au service de ces interactions. Ainsi les pays européens, sur fond social, tentent d'utiliser le levier de la coopération économique, pour permettre à des siècles de conflits, de se transformer en atout économique. Une telle construction, aux pantagruéliques rebondissements, fusion d'Histoire et d'empires, non loin de l'utopie États-Unis d'Europe de Victor Hugo, démontre l'incroyable ingéniosité, avec laquelle les hétérogénéités nationales semblent parfaire le paradigme Europe. Nous proposons, dans cette thèse, d'éclairer certains de ces défis, au regard des pays qui, il n'y a pas un demi-siècle, marquaient la fracture du continent, les PECO. Ces économies, passées du stade en transition à économie développée, sont un cas d'étude sans précédent pour la compréhension des challenges économiques internationaux. Après avoir explicité le cadre général, dans lequel s'inscrivent ces travaux (chapitre 1), nous tâchons d'éclairer l'impact, de la politique monétaire de la BCE, sur les pays périphériques de la zone Euro, cependant membre de l'UE. Dans ce chapitre 2, nous construisons deux groupes de pays, selon leur régime de change envers l'Euro (fixe ou flexible). A partir de là, en utilisant des données monétaires, de prix et de production, nous mesurons l'impact d'un choc monétaire, par la BCE, sur les PECO. Nous trouvons que l'intégration économique induit des effets de débordement qui viennent influencer les décisions monétaires domestiques. De manière cohérente, les pays en change fixe, subissent plus fortement la politique monétaire de la BCE. Cependant, dans les deux groupes de pays, nous trouvons que les débordements ont tendance, à avoir moins d'impact, sur la volatilité de nos variables, au cours de la dernière décennie. Nous l'expliquons, par un canal du taux de change, plus efficace, pour absorber les chocs (en change flexible) et une crédibilité accrue des institutions monétaires domestiques.Alors que nous venons de voir que des effets de débordement agissent dans les PECO, nous ne pouvons, nous empêcher, de relier cela, aux enjeux monétaires domestiques. La première phase de la transition, au cours des 90's, a été marquée par une forte inflation et par un taux de chômage très élevé. Ces dernières années sont sous le signe d'une inflation, qui semble maitrisée et d'un chômage relativement faible. Cela laisse à penser, que la crédibilité monétaire et que l'efficacité des banques centrales domestiques, ont été restaurées.Pourtant dans le processus d'accession à la zone Euro, les marges de manœuvre monétaires deviennent toujours plus restreintes. Tout au long du chapitre 3, nous utilisons la célèbre courbe de Phillips pour appréhender la relation, entre le taux de chômage et l'évolution des prix, comme proxy de l'efficacité de la politique monétaire. Les pays Baltes, la Slovénie et la Slovaquie nous permettent de mesurer l'impact des changements, de régimes de change, au cours de l'accession à la zone Euro. Dans le MCE-II, la relation est négative et significative. Néanmoins celle-ci disparait, au moment d'entrer dans l'union monétaire. Nous expliquons ce résultat par le fait que dans une union monétaire, les "petites" économies n'ont pas un poids suffisant pour influencer significativement les décisions de politiques monétaires.Si pour être pleinement efficace, la politique unique de la BCE doit se confronter, à des économies relativement homogènes, cette homogénéité transcende la sphère monétaire et touche directement l'économie réelle (en témoigne la courbe de Phillips). Les mécanismes d'ajustements, dans une union optimale, permettent de lisser l'impact des chocs asymétriques. Pour cela, le marché du travail nécessite une flexibilité (des salaires) et une mobilité des facteurs accrue. (.)
Despite GDP growth rate higher than EU-15 average, labour market conditions in some Central and Eastern European countries remain under question. Indeed, the unemployment rate takes time to decrease closed to or below the European average and the participation rate remains under European standards. This non-employment is even more an issue when looking at the regional NUTS-2 level where the dispersion increased over time. We use the Blanchard et al. (1992) approach to understand the reactions of both unemployment and participation rates when a shock is imposed on employment, at the regional level. We focus on the CEECs, using a panel-VAR estimation and draw an overall comparison with EU-15 countries. We identify two adjustment channel through wages and unemployment. We find an efficient labour supply adjustment in both group. The response of the unemployment rate is slightly more persistent and the women participation is more vulnerable in the CEECs.
Despite GDP growth rate higher than EU-15 average, labour market conditions in some Central and Eastern European countries remain under question. Indeed, the unemployment rate takes time to decrease closed to or below the European average and the participation rate remains under European standards. This non-employment is even more an issue when looking at the regional NUTS-2 level where the dispersion increased over time. We use the Blanchard et al. (1992) approach to understand the reactions of both unemployment and participation rates when a shock is imposed on employment, at the regional level. We focus on the CEECs, using a panel-VAR estimation and draw an overall comparison with EU-15 countries. We identify two adjustment channel through wages and unemployment. We find an efficient labour supply adjustment in both group. The response of the unemployment rate is slightly more persistent and the women participation is more vulnerable in the CEECs.
Few countries are part of the European Union but on the verge of the Euro-zone. This study aims at identifying the amplitude of the direct ECB monetary policy impact, i.e. the so-called international monetary spillovers, in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). The use of a panel-VAR method allows to deal with the small time span and endogeneity. We found that CEECs tend to significantly converge in monetary terms to the ECB standards. The direct impact on real variables remains relatively weak but contrary to the literature, is significant and in line with expectations. A persistent negative adjustment of GDP gives a quick glimpse of a robust reaction against monetary shock when the focus is made on the post-economic crisis period. The exchange rate regime plays a small but significant role in terms of magnitude. This increased interdependence is the result of macroeconomic reforms implemented during the last 25 years.
Few countries are part of the European Union but on the verge of the Euro-zone. This study aims at identifying the amplitude of the direct ECB monetary policy impact, i.e. the so-called international monetary spillovers, in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). The use of a panel-VAR method allows to deal with the small time span and endogeneity. We found that CEECs tend to significantly converge in monetary terms to the ECB standards. The direct impact on real variables remains relatively weak but contrary to the literature, is significant and in line with expectations. A persistent negative adjustment of GDP gives a quick glimpse of a robust reaction against monetary shock when the focus is made on the post-economic crisis period. The exchange rate regime plays a small but significant role in terms of magnitude. This increased interdependence is the result of macroeconomic reforms implemented during the last 25 years.
In the process of EU integration, toward the EA accession, we try to understand, how changes in exchange rate regime, attributed to the switch through the ERM-II and to the EA accession, influence the dynamic between inflation and unemployment, i.e., shock on the Phillips curve coefficient. We look at a panel of countries, in the CEECs over the last twenty years, using a recent work from McLeay and Tenreyro (2020), to clarify the impact of loosing the monetary autonomy. Being under a pegged regime is not associated with a flattened Phillips curve. However, after the EA accession, the Phillips curve coefficient becomes not significant. This result is confirmed, looking at other small EA countries; while "economic leaders" tend to maintain a significant trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Using recent work from
In the process of EU integration, toward the EA accession, we try to understand, how changes in exchange rate regime, attributed to the switch through the ERM-II and to the EA accession, influence the dynamic between inflation and unemployment, i.e., shock on the Phillips curve coefficient. We look at a panel of countries, in the CEECs over the last twenty years, using a recent work from McLeay and Tenreyro (2020), to clarify the impact of loosing the monetary autonomy. Being under a pegged regime is not associated with a flattened Phillips curve. However, after the EA accession, the Phillips curve coefficient becomes not significant. This result is confirmed, looking at other small EA countries; while "economic leaders" tend to maintain a significant trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Using recent work from
In the process of EU integration, toward the EA accession, we try to understand, how changes in exchange rate regime, attributed to the switch through the ERM-II and to the EA accession, influence the dynamic between inflation and unemployment, i.e., shock on the Phillips curve coefficient. We look at a panel of countries, in the CEECs over the last twenty years, using a recent work from McLeay and Tenreyro (2020), to clarify the impact of loosing the monetary autonomy. Being under a pegged regime is not associated with a flattened Phillips curve. However, after the EA accession, the Phillips curve coefficient becomes not significant. This result is confirmed, looking at other small EA countries; while "economic leaders" tend to maintain a significant trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Using recent work from
