Suchergebnisse

The "golden age" in East-West trade is over since 1975. However, the period following the beginning of the world crisis, up to 1980, was not so gloomy as it was expected in the mid seventies. Although at a reduced rate, compared with the previous period, there was a significant increase in trade and especially exports of Eastern Europe to the West. Apart from the Polish case, indebtedness of Eastern Europe did not soar in dramatic proportions, and some countries achieved a stabilization of their trade balance with the West at the end of the decade; East-West industrial cooperation developed; the adverse political climate, which deteriorated sharply in 1980, did not stop trade flows and did not entail a reorientation toward Comecon of East European trade ; notwithstanding the standstill of Comecon EEC negociations, several important arrangements were signed between the Common Market and individual Comecon member countries.
The prospects up to 1985 are not very bright, especially when considering the recession in Western economies, the structural difficulties impeding the reform movement in the East European economies, the Polish crisis, the financial difficulties of some other countries. The future of East-West trade is linked to the energy constraints of the Eastern bloc, its agricultural situation ; it may benefit from the developments in the socialist integration process.

Ten years after the launching of the transition process, many books and reports are offering a balance sheet of the transformation that occurred in Central and Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union area. The review article looks at some of them, particularly at Grzegorz W. Kolodko's book published in 2000, "From Shock to Therapy. The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation". On the basis of this book and of some recent contributions, three major issues are discussed. First, why has there been such a recession in the beginning of the transition process in all countries, and was the recession inevitable? Second, due to the dire criticisms of the standard policy applied in these countries, dubbed the "Washington consensus", has a "post-Washington consensus" emerged? Third, as we are already engaged in the second decade of the transition process, can we state when it is bound to be over, and what role is played by the European Union enlargement in accelerating the end of transition?