Suchergebnisse

It is common practice to estimate the volatility-growth link by specifying a standard growth equation such that the variance of the error term appears as an explanatory variable in this growth equation. The variance in turn is modelled by a second equation. Hardly any of existing applications of this framework includes exogenous controls in this second variance equation. Our theoretical findings suggest that the absence of relevant explanatory variables in the variance equation leads to a biased and inconsistent estimate of the volatility-growth link. Our simulations show that this effect is large. Once the appropriate controls are included in the variance equation consistency is restored. In short, we suggest that the variance equation must include relevant control variables to estimate the volatility-growth link.

The distribution of unemployment duration in our equilibrium matching model with spell-dependent unemployment benefits displays a time-varying exit rate. Building on Semi-Markov processes, we translate these exit rates into an expression for the aggregate unemployment rate. Structural estimation using a German micro-data set (SOEP) allows us to discuss the effects of a recent unemployment benefit reform (Hartz IV). The reform reduced unemployment by only 0.3%. Contrary to general beliefs, we find that both employed and unemployed workers gain (the latter from an intertemporal perspective). The reason is the rise in the net wage caused by more vacancies per unemployed worker.

Die Hartz-Reformen stellten zweifelsohne eine bedeutende Wende in der Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes dar. Obwohl die Reformen aus vier Teilen bestanden, war es hauptsächlich die Hartz-IV-Reform, die zu intensiven politischen und öffentlichen Debatten führte. Andrey Launov und Klaus Wälde zeigen, dass die Reform der Bundesanstalt für Arbeit (Hartz III), die ein Jahr vor der Hartz-IV-Reform implementiert wurde, einen viel größeren Beitrag zur Verringerung der Arbeitslosigkeit leistete. ; The Hartz reforms of the labour market constitute an important turning point in the evolution of the labour market in Germany. While the reforms consisted of four parts, it was especially the reform of the unemployment benefit system - the Hartz IV reform - that led to a strong response in the public and the media. Andrey Launov and Klaus Wälde demonstrate that the Hartz III reform of the German public employment agency (the "Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA)"), that took place one year earlier, was much more successful in reducing unemployment. The reorganisation or the BA accounts for around 20% of the reduction of unemployment between 2005 and 2008. By contrast, the Hartz IV reform can account for only 5% of this reduction.

Die Hartz-IV-Reform ist politisch stark umstritten. Mit ihr werden Gefährdungen des Lebensstandards bis hin zu Armut verbunden. Gleichzeitig konnte die Bundesrepublik ihre Arbeitslosenquote über die letzten Jahre so stark senken wie fast kein anderes Land in Europa bzw. der OECD. Welche Rolle spielen die Hartz-Reformen in dieser Erfolgsgeschichte? Andrey Launov und Klaus Wälde zeigen, dass die Hartz-IV-Gesetze keinen erwähnenswerten Beitrag zur Reduktion der Arbeitslosigkeit lieferten. Gleichzeitig waren die anderen Reformen, Hartz I bis Hartz III, umso hilfreicher. ; After the Hartz reforms of 2003-2005, unemployment in Germany has gone down significantly. Using a structural evaluation, it is shown that the contribution of the Hartz IV reform to this decrease was extremely modest. Hartz IV explains less than 0.1 percentage point of the decline in the observed unemployment rate. A substantial degree of influence, to the contrary, is attributed to the preceding Hartz III reform. Thus, the reduction of unemployment compensation could have been generally avoided.