The Association between Trajectories of Physical Activity and All-cause and Cause-specific Mortality
This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Journals of Gerontology Series a-Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Laddu, D., Parimi, N., Cauley, J. A., Cawthon, P. M., Ensrud, K. E., Orwoll, E., . . . Osteoporotic Fractures Men Mr, O. S. (2018). The Association Between Trajectories of Physical Activity and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality. Journals of Gerontology Series a-Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 73(12), 1708-1713. doi:10.1093/gerona/gly037 is available online at: indigo.uic.edu. ; Background: The benefits of physical activity (PA) for health have primarily been evaluated during midlife. Whether patterns of change in late-life PA associate with overall and cause-specific mortality remains unclear. Methods: We examined the association between PA trajectories and subsequent mortality among 3,767 men aged ≥ 65 years. Men self-reported PA using the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly scale (PASE) at up to 4 time points from 2000 through 2009 (Year 7); mortality was assessed over an average of 7.1 years after the Year 7 contact. Group-based trajectory modeling identified patterns of PA change. Cox proportional hazards models described associations between patterns of change in PA, Year 7 PA, and subsequent mortality risk. Results: Three discrete PA patterns were identified, all with declining PA. Compared to low-activity declining men, moderate (HR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.88) and high-activity (HR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.83) declining groups were associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. Among models with a single time-point, the last time point (Year 7 PA score) was a strong predictor of mortality with HR = 0.85 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.93) per SD increase in PASE score. PA patterns were not a risk factor for mortality after adjustment for the Year 7 PA score. Conclusions: Recent PA levels are a stronger indicator of subsequent mortality risk than PA patterns reported over the prior 7 years or prior PA level, suggesting that current PA rather than history of PA is the most relevant parameter in clinical settings. ; The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study is supported by National Institutes of Health funding. The following institutes provide support: the National Institute on Aging (NIA); the National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases (NIAMS); the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS); and NIH Roadmap for Medical Research (grant numbers U01 AG027810, U01 AG042124, U01 AG042139, U01 AG042140, U01 AG042143, U01 AG042145, U01 AG042168, U01 AR066160, and UL1 TR000128). This manuscript is the result of work supported with resources and use of facilities of the Minneapolis VA Health Care System. The contents do not represent the views of the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs or the United States Government.