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IN THIS ARTICLE THE AUTHOR POSITS THAT A LINK IS MISSING IN THE EXPLANATIONS OF THE ORGANICS OF ARMAMENT AND THE ARMS RACE: THE PRENUCLEAR THINKING OF THE CIVILIAN, SOLDIER AND POLITICIAN. THE AUTHOR CONTENDS THAT IT IS CHARACTERISTIC OF THE NUCLEAR AGE THAT THE THINKING AND BEHAVIOUR OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, POLITICIANS AND COMMENTATORS HAVE ONLY PARTIALLY EXPERIENCED THE INFLUENCE OF THE NUCLEAR REVOLUTION. POLITICS HAS NOT BEEN CAPABLE OF CREATIVELY FACING THE FACT THAT MILITARY POWER AND WAR AS A POLITICAL MEANS HAS ASSUMED AN ENTIRELY NEW MEANING IN THE NUCLEAR AGE. THIS IS PARTICULARY IMPORTANT WHEN ONE BELIEVES THAT EXPLANATIONS FOR THE ARMS RACE MUST NOT BE LIMITED TO THE PHYSICAL BUT ALSO MUST INCLUDE PSYCHOLOGICAL, IDEOLOGICAL AND POLITICAL ASPECTS.

SummaryPrice expectations based on consumers pollingsThe authors consider the influence of price expectations on savings and the purchases of durable consumers goods. These expectations, based on monthly pollings of the Dutch Gallup Institute (N.I.P.O.), are "explained" by relating them to the price movements in the past. Their quality is judged by comparing them with the actual price changes. The conclusion is drawn that the price expectations contain, in the period considered, more information about the future than could be obtained by means of a mere extrapolation of the price movements in the past.

SummaryTesting against skewness.This note deals with the skewness coefficient based on quartiles [defined in (1.3), M being the median and QL and Qv the lower and upper quartile respectively], and considers its distribution over the set of random samples drawn from normal and rectangular parents. The asymptotic sampling variance is derived [(2.1) jor a normal, (2.2) for a rectangular parent, n being the sample size], after which the hypothesis is tested that S is normally distributed with zero mean and a variance which equals its asymptotic value. The evidence, based on 400 samples of normal and rectangular numbers of various size, suggests that this null hypothesis need not be rejected.

Abstract. The likely manifestations of climate change like flood hazards are prominent topics in public communication. This can be shown by media analysis and questionnaire data. However, in the case of flood risks an information gap remains resulting in misinformed citizens who probably will not perform the necessary protective actions when an emergency occurs. This paper examines more closely a newly developed approach to flood risk communication that takes the heterogeneity of citizens into account and aims to close this gap. The heterogeneity is analysed on the meso level regarding differences in residential situation as well as on the micro level with respect to risk perception and protective actions. Using the city of Bremen as a case study, empirical data from n=831 respondents were used to identify Action Types representing different states of readiness for protective actions in view of flood risks. These subpopulations can be provided with specific information to meet their heterogeneous needs for risk communication. A prototype of a computer-based information system is described that can produce and pass on such tailored information. However, such an approach to risk communication has to be complemented by meso level analysis which takes the social diversity of subpopulations into account. Social vulnerability is the crucial concept for understanding the distribution of resources and capacities among different social groups. We therefore recommend putting forums and organisations into place that can mediate between the state and its citizens.

THIS ARTICLE EXPLORES THE FAR-REACHING IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEWLY OPENED BERLIN WALL -- THE PROSPECT OF REUNIFICATION IT EXAMINES THE CONCERN OF BONN'S NEIGHBORS, AS WELL AS THE UNITED STATES, THAT GERMANY IS DETERMINED TO TRAVEL ITS OWN PATH, EVEN IF THIS MEANS UPSETTING THE EUROPEAN BALANCE OF POWERS, THE PROSPECT OF AN UPSURGE OF RIGHT-WING NATIONALISM IN BOTH GERMAN STATES IS EXAMINED THE ARTICLE OFFERS INTERVIEWS, CONDUCTED AT THE INTERNATIONAL EAST-WEST WORKSHOP ON COMMON SECURITY, ABOUT GERMANY AFTER THE WALL.