Suchergebnisse

This paper develops a heterogeneous agents segmented markets model with endogenous production and a monetary authority that follows a Taylor-type interest rate rule. The model is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques and is evaluated as a framework suitable for empirical monetary analysis. We find that the segmented markets friction significantly improves the statistical out-of-sample prediction performance of the model, and generates delayed and realistic impulse response functions to monetary policy shocks. In addition, we find that the estimates of the Taylor rule are stable across the pre-1979 and post-1982 periods in our sample, while the volatilities of the structural shocks faced in the pre-1979 period are substantially higher than in the post-1982 period.

This paper estimates and compares the full participation and the segmented markets monetary frameworks. In both models, the real sector and monetary policy determine exogenously the joint process for the aggregate endowment and the short-term nominal interest rate, while the money growth rate and the inflation rate are determined endogenously. Using linearized versions of the models, we use Bayesian methods to compare the two models over the full dimension of the data. This likelihood-based comparison overwhelmingly favors the segmented markets model over the full participation model. The estimate of the fraction of households participating in financial markets is approximately 13%. The segmented markets model generates more persistent and more realistic impulse response functions to monetary policy shocks. Our results strongly suggest that taking the presence of market segmentation into account is important in understanding the short-run dynamics of the monetary sector.

Countries that experience 'growth miracles' often exhibit rising investment rates and large intersectoral resource transfers. But how important are these factors to this process? We consider this question using a two‐sector growth model with a segmented labour market. Numerical simulations show that a doubling of the investment rate can generate a significant intersectoral re‐allocation of labour and can have a large impact on aggregate output per worker. Under our baseline parameter values, the effect of the investment rate on per capita incomes is amplified by 25–50 per cent, relative to a standard one‐sector growth model.