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Risk aversion in the municipal bond market has been an assumption of most discussions regarding the municipal bond market, but has not been formally documented. The research in this article tests for the presence of risk aversion through comparing a risk‐neutral bond yield with the observed yields on municipal bonds. A significant level of risk aversion is found to exist in the municipal bond market.

"Written in a simple and easy to understand manner, Forecasting Government Budgets presents some of the frequently used methods, simple as well as advanced, in budget forecasting. Although written primarily for graduate students in public administration and management, students from other disciplines will also find it useful."

In this paper, we examine the effects of the global rating recalibration conducted by Moody's and Fitch credit rating agencies in early 2010. We test the hypothesis forwarded by the rating agencies that the recalibration was "yield neutral." Using time series methods, we find that the rating recalibration brought a structural change to the municipal bond market and increased the spread of municipal bonds in the Aaa, Aa, and A rating categories over their risk‐free comparison group by approximately 15 basis points. The impact of the rating recalibration on the spread of Baa‐rated bonds was not statistically significant.

This paper investigates the path effects of systematic government investment on national growth. We build a theory where government investment practices, along with other institutional variables, affect the quality of a country's core public infrastructure sys-tem. This, in turn, positively affects national productivity. Using the path analysis meth-od, we test our theoretical framework on a sample of data drawn from 25 developing economies during the period from 1990 to 2000. The results suggest that a unit increase in systematic public investment practices indirectly enhances national productivity with an increase of about $10-$15 in a country's real per capita GDP through the better condition and service capacity of a country's core public infrastructure.

Background -- Introduction / Craig L. Johnson and Kenneth A. Kriz -- A primer on tax increment financing / Craig L. Johnson and Kenneth A. Kriz -- A review of state tax increment financing laws / Kenneth A. Kriz and Craig L. Johnson -- The use of debt in tax increment financing / Tima T. Moldogaziev, Martin J. Luby, Craig L. Johnson and Ruth Winecoff -- Implementation, uses & structure -- The port covington TIF : did Baltimore "protect this house?" / Roy T. Meyers -- TIF for major project development : the case of the Stapleton airport redevelopment / Christine R. Martell -- An incentive program grows up : the evolution of TIF in Chicago / Andrea Craft and Rachel Weber -- TIF in California : birth, growth, death and resurrection / Catherine Horiuchi and Jeffrey Chapman -- The (d)evolution of TIF use : redevelopment to land development in nebraska / Craig S. Maher, Sungho Park and Ji Hyung Park -- Using TIF for brownfields redevelopment / E. Evans Paull -- State super TIF programs : new tools for transformative urban redevelopment / E. Evans Paull -- Economic, social and fiscal impact -- The theory and economic impact of tax increment financing / Kenneth A. Kriz -- Tax increment financing and spatial spillovers / Anita Yadavalli and Michael Delgado -- The conceptual pliability and the political rhetoric of environmental remediation: groundwater pollution and tax "decrement" financing in Wichita / Chase M. Billingham and Sean Sandefur -- TIF and education funding : issues and impact / Phuong Nguyen-Hoang -- The tif organism in Indiana : agile and adaptive / Perry Burnett, Mohammed Khayum, Sudesh Mujumdar, and Daniel Friesner -- Conclusion / Craig L. Johnson and Kenneth A. Kriz -- Contributors --

AbstractA Capital Appreciation Bond (CAB) is a financial instrument that is most attractive as a resource‐flow management instrument. It bridges multiple fiscal years for jurisdictions experiencing rapid growth, potentially stretching for decades, but may also be used by localities experiencing fiscal distress. Using debt issuance data by independent school districts in Texas, who utilized almost all such bonds in the state, we present empirical evidence that CABs are associated with both the service and fiscal pressure factors. We further observe that, though the threat from CABs in terms of borrowing costs may have been exaggerated, enacting limits on debt repayment ratios (ratio of payment size at maturity to premium size) was likely the right legislative intervention.

High‐reliability advocates claim that highly reliable organizations (HROs), such as the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) air traffic control system, routinely demonstrate the ability to safely and reliably perform large‐scale technical operations. High levels of productivity with low levels of error are achieved even though complex technologies are used to accomplish mission goals. A recent study asserted that the FAA's air traffic control function developed HRO characteristics over a long period of time as part of a larger high‐reliability system. In that study, identifiable and measurable attributes and characteristics associated with high reliability were constructed, and their emergence was tracked over time. In this article, time‐series analysis was used to measure the relationship between characteristics associated with high reliability and commercial aviation accident reduction. A small but statistically significant effect was identified linking the adoption of HRO characteristics over time with a reduction in commercial aviation accident rates.

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal institutions on state government borrowing costs. We find that institutions have both a direct and indirect effect on interest costs paid by state governments. Revenue limits are associated directly with higher interest costs; expenditure limits, stricter balanced budget rules, and restrictions on state debt issuance are indirectly associated with lower interest costs because they lead to higher credit ratings. It appears that investors and bond raters incorporate information on fiscal institutions into their assessment of state government credit quality.