Suchergebnisse

This paper examines the effect of trade protection on firm productivity, using the Thai manufacturing sector as a case study. While our main finding is in favor of a liberal trade policy environment, we argue input and output tariffs should be treated separately in examining their impact on productivity. Ceteris paribus, lowering input tariffs potentially has at least two opposite effects. It allows firms to benefit in several ways, enhancing their productivity, while also discouraging their efforts to improve productivity due to the increased level of effective protection. This necessitates caution when pursuing trade policy reform in not placing too much focus on input tariffs while leaving output tariffs untouched. Even though input and output tariffs work differently in promoting firms' productivity, any trade policy reform process should take both input and output tariffs into consideration in ensuring that trade is actually liberalized.

The paper aims to examine causes of export slowdown in Thailand, firstly noticed since 2013. The adverse effect has been increased and widely affected other sectors as the global economic recovery has not reached the expectation. Even though Thailand diversified her export destination away from traditional markets like US and EU, this does not make her dependence of these market become less. Our key inference is Thailand should be well prepared for a circumstance where the global economy is in downturn. Any short-run fiscal stimulus must be undertaken with cautious due to the budget constraints. The stimulus should be directed to those who are seriously affected by the global economic slowdown to avoid public debt. In addition, promoting border trade with neighboring countries would be another policy recommendation to materialize advantage of Thailand at the center of Indochina region. The longer-tern policy challenge is how to use government spending to crowding in private investment that yet fully recovered since Asian Financial Crisis. In this regard, spending priority matters. ; บทความนี้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อเพิ่มความเข้าใจเกี่ยวกับสถานการณ์การส่งออกของไทย ในความเป็นจริงสถานการณ์การส่งออกชะลอตัวตั้งแต่ต้นปีพ.ศ. 2556 สถานการณ์ดังกล่าวส่งผลกระทบรุนแรงขึ้นอย่างต่อเนื่อง และเริ่มกระจายไปยังส่วนอื่นๆ ในระบบเศรษฐกิจอันเนื่องมาจากการฟื้นตัวของเศรษฐกิจโลกที่ไม่ได้เป็นไปตามที่คาดหมาย ที่ผ่านมาแม้ประเทศไทยหันมาพึ่งตลาดใหม่ๆ เพิ่มขึ้นแต่ยังไม่ได้เกิดขึ้นอย่างมีนัยสำคัญดังที่มีการอนุมานข้อมูลการกระจายตัวของตลาดการส่งออกที่นิยมประเมินจากสื่อสิ่งพิมพ์ต่างๆ นัยยะเชิงนโยบายจากบทความนี้จะแสดงให้เห็นว่าประเทศไทยควรเตรียมพร้อมรับสถานการณ์ และควรจะบริหารเศรษฐกิจอย่างไรในภาวะที่เศรษฐกิจโลกอยู่ในช่วงซบเซา โดยการออกมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจระยะสั้นแต่ต้องทำอย่างระมัดระวัง เพราะงบประมาณที่มีอยู่อย่างจำกัดและเศรษฐกิจโลกน่าจะชะลอตัวต่อเนื่อง การทำแบบเหวี่ยงแหเพื่อหวังผลแบบรวดเร็วจึงต้องเพิ่มความระมัดระวัง เพราะที่ผ่านมาประเทศไทยกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจไปค่อนข้างมาก และการกระตุ้นเพิ่มมากขึ้นอาจมีผลจำกัดและเสี่ยงที่จะทำให้เกิดปัญหาหนี้สินในระยะยาว ทั้งนี้มาตรการระยะสั้นเป็นมาตรการหนึ่งที่น่าจะพอเป็นแรงขับเคลื่อนเศรษฐกิจได้ กล่าวคือกระตุ้นการส่งออกไปยังตลาดในกลุ่มประเทศเพื่อนบ้าน ได้แก่ ประเทศกัมพูชาประเทศสาธารณรัฐประชาธิปไตยประชาชนลาวประเทศเมียนมาร์เพราะตลาดในประเทศเหล่านี้เติบโตอย่างต่อเนื่องส่วนมาตรการระยะยาวควรมุ่งไปที่การกระตุ้นให้ภาคเอกชนลงทุนผ่านการลงทุนของภาครัฐ โดยเฉพาะการลงทุนในโครงสร้างพื้นฐานโดยที่ต้องจัดลำดับความสำคัญให้เหมาะสม

AbstractThis paper illustrates the role of international production networks (IPNs) and industrial clusters (ICs) in the upgrading process with a view to gain a better understanding of their upgrading experiences. This can shed some light on the ongoing debate regarding the relative importance of IPNs and ICs and their implications for prudential industrial policy. The automotive and hard disk drive (HDD) industries in Thailand are chosen as case studies because their outstanding export performance in the world market in the past two decades suggests their success in industrial upgrading. Nonetheless, these two industries differ in their modes of networking. In the former, industrial clustering has been observed and has reached a level where the local content of a locally manufactured vehicle is approaching 100 percent. For the latter, industrial clustering has naturally occurred and reached a certain level, while IPNs still play a crucial role. This result suggests the possibility of coexistence between IPNs and ICs. The observed industrial clustering in the HDD industry in the later stage also shows that ICs would be a developmental outcome rather than a precondition of technological upgrading. The choice between IPNs and ICs should be a private sector decision, driven by the economic fundamentals.The public sector should focus on strengthening the supply‐side capabilities of local firms as well as creating an investment climate to further promote upgrading activities.

This paper illustrates the upgrading experiences of the automotive and hard disk drive (HDD) industries in Thailand, chosen because of their outstanding export performance in the developing world. An understanding of their upgrading experiences can shed some light on the ongoing debate regarding the relative importance of international production networks (IPNs) and industrial clusters (ICs) and their implications for prudential industrial policy. The impact of the recent global recession is also discussed in this paper. There is evidence of industrial upgrading in both the automotive and HDD industries. Yet one primary policy challenge still remains, that is, the limited role of indigenous suppliers in the multinational enterprise (MNE) production networks. This limited role is, to a certain extent, related to the overall incentive structure. Where these two industries differ is in their mode of networking, that is, whether they are part of an IPN or an IC. In the case of the automotive industry, industrial clustering has been observed and has reached a level where the local content of a locally manufactured vehicle is approaching 100%. In the case of the HDD industry, industrial clustering has naturally occurred and reached a certain level. Even though the current global economic crisis has severely affected each industry's production and exports, the hollow out scenario is unlikely to apply to either. In other words, Thailand should remain a base of production and exports for MNEs, a situation which points to the need for continual industrial upgrading. Three policy-related conclusions are drawn in this paper. Firstly, the limited linkages between MNE affiliates and indigenous suppliers point to the need for a comprehensive study probing the potentially distorting effect of the cascading tariff structure - a key theme of tariff policy for the past three decades. Despite consecutive governments' efforts since the mid-1990s to neutralize the tariff structure, it is clear that much remains to be done. Secondly, the choice between an IPN and an IC is a purely private sector decision, driven by the nature of the particular industry. There is also the possibility of coexistence between IPNs and ICs. Industrial clustering can be a developmental outcome rather than a pre-condition of technological upgrading. Finally, to promote industrial upgrading process, the government should emphasize policies that strengthen the supply-side capabilities of local firms and create an investment climate that encourages further upgrading activities.

Thailand's export-oriented automotive industry is a recognized economic success story. How did it happen and what lessons might other countries draw? This paper argues that the success of the industry was based on three factors. First was the substantial public investment in port facilities and related infrastructure, beginning in the 1990s, that constituted the Eastern Seaboard economic corridor. Second was the exchange rate depreciation that followed the 1997-1999 Asian Financial Crisis, making manufacturing production for export more profitable. The third factor was two key policy changes adopted by the Thai government shortly after the crisis, and partly in response to it: (a) abolition of restrictions on foreign ownership and (b) abolition of local content requirements. Neighboring countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, also experienced the crisis and were potential competitors in attracting foreign investment in automotive production for export. But they did not adopt these two key reforms.