Suchergebnisse

Land use planning often is implemented to control development on forests and farmland, but its impact on land use remains untested. Previous studies evaluating such programs have relied on anecdotal evidence rather than on data describing actual land use change. A model of land use is specified as a function of socioeconomic factors, land rent, and landowners' characteristics, to examine how well Oregon's land use planning program has protected forests and farmland from development. The empirical model describes the probability that forests and farmland in western Oregon and western Washington were developed to residential, commercial, or industrial uses, before and after Oregon's land use planning program took effect. Land use data are provided by the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program. Results suggest that Oregon's land use planning program has concentrated development within urban growth boundaries since its implementation, but its success at reducing the likelihood of development on resource lands located within forest use and exclusive farm use zones remains uncertain.

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire‐prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community‐wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire‐prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape‐scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities.