Suchergebnisse

A number of recent papers have raised serious questions about the validity of the German dominance hypothesis, using Granger (temporal) causality tests. If Germany dominates within the European Monetary System, then German monetary policy, measured by either money stocks or interest rates should Granger (temporally) cause other EMS countries' monetary policies, but not vice versa. Empirical evidence leads analysts to conclude that the German dominance hypothesis is invalid, or at a minimum, in need of significant reformulation. Explores similar Granger causality tests, using the recent cointegration and error‐correction modelling strategy, for the US and a group of developing countries during the Bretton Woods period, where conventional wisdom suggests that US policy dominated. Finds significant evidence of two‐way causality between the US money stock and the money stocks of a large number of developing countries. These findings raise a serious questions about the interpretation and/or appropriateness of the Granger causality test for investigating policy dominance hypotheses.

The international linkages between money stocks (and inflation rates) has received much attention. Focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Fixed rate systems require credible commitments to the rules of the game by the central banks involved. Credible commitment can be achieved through cooperative (symmetric) or coercive (asymmetric) regimes. Did the USA (Germany) dominate other developed (European) countries during the Bretton Woods (European Monetary) system? Examines the linkages, if any, between the USA (German) money stock and money stocks in other developed (European) countries, using the cointegration and error‐correction methodology. Finds evidence that USA (German) money stock did affect other (European) countries′ money stocks during fixed exchange rates. Finds, also, reverse causality which raises serious questions about either the dominance of the USA (Germany) within the Bretton Woods (European Monetary) system, or the usefulness of causality tests is answering such questions.