Suchergebnisse

Cover -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Acknowledgements -- Foreword -- Foreword -- Prolegomena -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Causes and Consequences of the Post-'New Economy' Bubble -- 3 Wages and Prices and the Proper Conduct of Monetary Policy -- 4 Corporate Profits and Relationship to Investment -- 5 Long-term Risks to Investment Recovery -- 6 The Housing Market and Residential Investment -- 7 Long-term Risks of Robust Consumer Behaviour -- 8 Foreign Demand -- 9 The US External Imbalance and the Dollar: A Long-term View -- 10 The Long-term Risks to US Financial Markets -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index.

ABSTRACTAn important issue in the discussion of fiscal policy is the contention that the public sector could expand only at the expense of the private sector, which must contract to provide the necessary room. This paper is concerned with 'financial' crowding out, which relates to the financing of public expenditure, rather than resource crowding out, which relates to the size of public expenditure. The paper attempts to determine empirically, using the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) macroeconomic model of the UK economy, whether fiscal actions under different modes of finance affect some strategic economic variables. The paper utilises techniques of optimal control, which are considered superior to simulation. The main conclusion of the paper is that there is no significant crowding out in the NIESR model; it is, nevertheless, important to distinguish between money-financed and bond-financed increases in government expenditure.

THIS PAPER ATTEMPTS TO DETERMINE EMPIRICALLY, USING THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH MACROECONOMIC MODEL OF THE UK ECONOMY, WHETHER FISCAL ACTIONS UNDER DIFFERENT MODES OF FINANCE AFFECT SOME STRATEGIC ECONOMIC VARIABLES. THE PAPER UTILISES TECHNIQUES OF OPTIMAL CONTROL, WHICH ARE CONSIDERED SUPERIOR TO SIMULATION. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CROWDING OUT IN THE NIESR MODEL.

An important issue in the discussion of fiscal policy is the contention that the public sector could expand only at the expense of the private sector, which must contract to provide the necessary room. Focusing on the phenomenon of "financial" crowding out, which relates to the financing of public expenditure, rather than resource crowding out, which relates to the size of public expenditure, an attempt is made to determine empirically, using the National Instit of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) macroeconomic model of the UK economy, whether fiscal actions under different modes of finance affect some strategic economic variables. It is concluded that there is no significant crowding out in the NIESR model; it is, however, important to distinguish between money-financed & bond-financed increases in government expenditure. 4 Tables, 55 References. Modified HA.

The central purpose of this article is to provide measures of the effect of fiscal and monetary policy in the period 1979-82, using for the purpose information derived from simulations of two macroeconometric models of the British economy, those of HM Treasury and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. The methodology employed is explained in detail in the next section, which is succeeded by a discussion of its implementation in the second section of the article. The principal results of the analysis are then set out in the third section of the article. The period under consideration has been marked by a severe recession, to which domestic economic policy has not been the only contributor; in the fourth section of the article we therefore consider the additional influence of world factors. In the fifth section we go on to consider an extension of the policy measures to take account of exchange rate policy. There is a final section of conclusions which assesses the contribution of government policy and the downturn in world trade to the shortfall of output below its trend value. An appendix provides additional technical detail whilst more complete tabulations of the results are available on request from the authors.