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The rationale is straightforward and persuasive: intrastate conflicts are by definition subnational phenomena. If we want to understand them fully, it may be wise to refocus our attention from the country level to the subnational level. Where violence is located might inform us as to why it erupts and how it is linked to various political, economic or social factors. The number of statistical geospatial analyses undertaken at the subnational level has been increasing constantly in recent years. Even though such studies have contributed greatly to peace and conflict research, they have come with their own challenges. Most importantly, they often do not adequately consider the theoretical and conceptual implications of switching from conventional cross-country to subnational analysis; this has led to dubious theoretical arguments and conclusions. Moreover, operationalization and measurement issues often limit these analyses' explanatory power. The paper reviews several geospatial analyses of violent conflict, points out the limitations of the previous research and proposes some potential avenues for improvement. -- civil war ; political violence ; geospatial analysis ; subnational analysis ; causality

In vielen Bürgerkriegen wirken Religionen gewalteskalierend. Sie grenzen Andersgläubige voneinander ab und erhöhen ihre Kampfbereitschaft. In anderen Konflikten spielen Religionen keine Rolle oder wirken sogar friedensfördernd. Warum tragen Religionen in manchen Kriegen zur Eskalation bei und in anderen nicht? Anhand einer vergleichenden Analyse aktueller Bürgerkriege zeigt die Arbeit, dass Bündnisse politischer und religiöser Eliten entscheidend sind. Wenn solche Allianzen entstehen, steigt die Gefahr religiöser Konflikteskalationen: Politische Eliten organisieren den bewaffneten Kampf, Geistliche überzeugen die Menschen, dass die Gewalt religiös geboten ist. Solche Bündnisse entstehen, wenn die Kooperationspartner überzeugt sind, dass sie von der Allianz profitieren können. Die Studie zeigt, dass diese Kooperationsbereitschaft maßgeblich auf innerreligiösen Konkurrenzsituationen und der inneren Verfasstheit religiöser Gemeinschaften beruhen. Wie Religionen in Konflikten nach außen wirken, hängt davon ab, wie sie nach innen organisiert sind

Is violent opposition less likely to occur in subnational regions that have been treated preferentially by the respective country's ruling elite? Many authoritarian regimes try to secure political support by providing critical segments of the population with privileged access to economic or political rents. This study is interested in the effects of this strategy. Our empirical analysis is based on crowdsourcing data on the number and geospatial distribution of fatalities in the Syrian civil war. We also use satellite images of the earth at night to measure spatial variations in access to electricity across Syrian subdistricts; these data are complemented with information from the last Syrian population census. Estimations of fixed-effects logit models confirm the hypothesis that the risk of violence has been lower in subdistricts that had been favored by the ruling regime in terms of preferential access to electricity in times of power shortages. -- regime cooptation ; geographical distribution of violence ; Syria ; civil war ; crowdsourcing data ; nightlights