Suchergebnisse

The case for impending climate change is now proven. Governments can decide, by their action or inaction, to what extent the change will occur; the International Agriculture Research Community (IARC) will have no say in this whatsoever. It is up to the IARC to try to maintain objectives in the face of the possible scenarios. In this paper we discuss the various types of agricultural research projects in terms of their time to fruition and the expected longevity of their results. We look at the information requirements for ensuring that project products have the necessary lifetimes to justify the investments in the research. We show that strategies differ depending on the type of research that is undertaken. Basic research into genetic traits and capacities within the available germplasm has to be planned in the long term with outcomes in mind. The vulnerability of the populations and agricultural systems that use developments from this basic research now places its priority setting in a changing climate and world concept. Ensuring that the germplasm is available for use has taken on a critical new importance with recent studies. Germplasm banks comprise a small fraction of what we will be relying on for the future. Well over 90% of useful genetic variability may still be in the wild. This has to be considered carefully in setting out research objectives. Plant breeders, who will put together the results of the basic research into useful packages, now have an uncertain target to aim for when regarding future climate conditions. They may not be able to choose their testing sites in present climates to target agricultural populations that will be using their products in the future. Agronomic and agricultural development projects face the most difficult task. How do we develop stable farming systems in an environment that is not only unstable, but also changing so slowly that the farmers cannot see, or even envisage, the changes. These are some examples of the problem. The paper sets out to categorise the types of research and information that will be necessary at all levels. We draw on experience from the CGIAR system and from CIAT in particular. We show that a number of software tools have been developed that can address some of these problems. ; Peer-reviewed

The world's climate is continuing to change at rates that are projected to be unprecedented in recent human history. Some models are now indicating that the temperature increases to 2100 may be larger than previously estimated in 2001. The impacts of climate change are likely to be considerable in tropical regions. Developing countries are generally considered more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than more developed countries, largely attributed to a low capacity to adapt in the developing world. Of the developing countries, many in Africa are seen as being the most vulnerable to climate variability and change. High levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity in the developing world have been linked to factors such as a high reliance on natural resources, limited ability to adapt financially and institutionally, low per capita GDP and high poverty, and a lack of safety nets. The challenges for development are considerable, not least because the impacts are complex and highly uncertain. The overall aims of DFID's new research programme on climate change and development in sub-Saharan Africa are to improve the ability of poor people to be more resilient to current climate variability as well as to the risks associated with longer-term climate change. The programme is designed to address the knowledge implications of interacting and multiple stresses, such as HIV/AIDS and climate change, on the vulnerability of the poor, and it will concentrate on approaches that work where government structures are weak. To help identify where to locate specific research activities and where to put in place uptake pathways for research outputs, information is required that relates projected climate change with vulnerability data. ILRI undertook some exploratory vulnerability mapping for the continent in late 2005 and early 2006, building on some livestock poverty mapping work carried out in 2002. The work described here is a small piece of a larger activity that involved the commissioning of several studies on ...