Suchergebnisse

The Richardson model has been employed frequently in the study of arm races, but seldom with empirically satisfactory results. For each of twelve pairs of arms expenditure series which are commonly proposed as arms races, we consider two potential sources for the failure of Richardson modeling efforts. First, they may not constitute arms races. Second, for those which do, the Richardson model specification may not be adequate. The methodology which enables us to explore these issues is "statistical causality analysis," as recently promulgated in time series research. Using this methodology, we find that arms expenditures are independent in a majority of the twelve cases examined. For those cases where interdependence is found, those which exhibit arms competition, the traditional Richardson model specification is not empirically supported. Finally, we provide a specific methodology for improved model specification derived from a general distributed lag model for any proposed arms race.

As the UK leaves the European Union, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which for decades has dictated how and when farming support is delivered, will be replaced with a new UK agricultural policy which will see UK farmers, especially upland livestock farmers, facing a more challenging economic environment and a significant change to the way in which farming support is delivered. This study used a series of interviews with UK farmers across differing locations and categories to ascertain how levels of social capital may hinder or enhance a farmer's willingness to embrace future agricultural policy. We found that more conventional farmers who have never participated in agri-environment schemes and those currently in government-run schemes display high levels of bonding capital and low levels of bridging and linking capital which may hinder their ability to adapt to change. In contrast, farmers who embrace a pubic goods approach to land management displayed high bridging and linking capital and are more likely to work with government officials to adapt to policy change. Communities are more likely to become sustainable if they have access to government support and advice, and if relationships with other community members and stakeholders with an interest in rural communities, the natural environment and land management are encouraged and maintained.

Carbon labels inform consumers about the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) released during the production and consumption of goods, including food. In the future consumer and legislative responses to carbon labels may favour goods with lower emissions, and thereby change established supply chains. This may have unintended consequences. We present the carbon footprint of three horticultural goods of different origins supplied to the United Kingdom market: lettuce, broccoli and green beans. Analysis of these footprints enables the characterisation of three different classes of vulnerability which are related to: transport, national economy and supply chain specifics. There is no simple relationship between the characteristics of an exporting country and its vulnerability to the introduction of a carbon label. Geographically distant developing countries with a high level of substitutable exports to the UK are most vulnerable. However, many developing countries have low vulnerability as their main exports are tropical crops which would be hard to substitute with local produce. In the short term it is unlikely that consumers will respond to carbon labels in such a way that will have major impacts in the horticultural sector. Labels which require contractual reductions in GHG emissions may have greater impacts in the short term.