Phylodynamics and human-mediated dispersal of a zoonotic virus
Understanding the role of humans in the dispersal of predominantly animal pathogens is essential for their control. We used newly developed Bayesian phylogeographic methods to unravel the dynamics and determinants of the spread of dog rabies virus (RABV) in North Africa. Each of the countries studied exhibited largely disconnected spatial dynamics with major geopolitical boundaries acting as barriers to gene flow. Road distances proved to be better predictors of the movement of dog RABV than accessibility or raw geographical distance, with occasional long distance and rapid spread within each of these countries. Using simulations that bridge phylodynamics and spatial epidemiology, we demonstrate that the contemporary viral distribution extends beyond that expected for RABV transmission in African dog populations. These results are strongly supportive of human-mediated dispersal, and demonstrate how an integrated phylogeographic approach will turn viral genetic data into a powerful asset for characterizing, predicting, and potentially controlling the spatial spread of pathogens. ; This work was supported by the European Union Project RABMEDCONTROL (FP6 Project: INCO-CT-2006-517727). PL was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Fund for Scientific Research (FWO) Flanders. ECH was supported by National Institutes of Health (NIH) grant R01 GM080533, while MAS was partially supported by NIH grant R01 GM086887 and National Science Foundation grant DMS 0856099. The European Research Council has provided financial support under the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement no \#260864. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ; Sí