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Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable

Vorwort 4 Inhaltsverzeichnis 6 Abbildungs- und Tabellenverzeichnis 10 Kapitel 1: Einleitung 13 1.1 Pfade in der Studienstruktur- und IT-Reform 13 1.2 Zur Motivation und Relevanz dieser Arbeit 14 1.3 Überblick über die Arbeit 16 Kapitel 2: Zur Konzeption von Pfadabhängigkeit und Wandel in Organisationen 21 2.1 Grundzüge der Strukturationstheorie 21 2.1.1 Soziale Struktur und Systeme 22 2.1.2 Die Dimensionen des Sozialen 24 2.1.3 Handeln, Handlungen und Akteure 25 2.1.4 Struktur, Handlungen, Zeit und Kausalität 26 2.2 Zur Strukturationstheorie der Organisation 28 2.2.1 Zum strukturationstheoretischen Organisationsbegriff 29 2.2.2 Organisationale Strukturen und Wechselwirkungen 34 2.2.3 Akteure und Handlungsspielraum 37 2.3 Organisationale Entscheidungen 38 2.3.1 Inhaltliche Aspekte von Entscheidungen 39 2.3.2 Diskursive Konstitution; Entscheidung als Prozess und singuläre Handlung 39 2.3.3 Zur Kausalität von Entscheidungen und Folgen 41 2.3.4 Organisationale Entscheidungen als politisch-soziale Prozesse 44 2.4 Formelle Regeln in Organisationen 45 2.4.1 Perspektiven auf Regeln 46 2.4.2 Formelle Regeln in strukturationstheoretischer Perspektive 48 2.4.3 Möglichkeiten einer Untersuchung formeller Regeln 53 2.5 Informationstechnologie und Regeln 54 2.5.1 IT als soziale Struktur 54 2.5.2 Trennung von IT-Gestaltung und IT- Nutzung 57 2.5.3 IT als Materialisierung formeller Regeln 58 2.5.4 Die Strukturation von IT und Regeln 61 2.6 Andere Perspektiven auf Stabilität und Wandel von Organisationen 65 2.6.1 Institutionelle Isomorphie als externer Treiber organisationalen Wandels 66 2.6.2 Rigidität und Trägheit von Organisationen 68 2.6.3 Komplementaritäten und Organizational Systems 70 2.7 Organisationale Pfadabhängigkeit 71 2.7.1 Pfadabhängigkeit in strukturationstheoretischer Sicht 73 2.7.2 Pfadabhängigkeit von Organisationen und Strukturen 75 2.7.3 Zum Verständnis von Pfaden in Organisationen 79 2.7.4 Selbstverstärkungsmechanismen und Wechselwirkungen in Organisationen 85 2.8 Die wichtigsten Konzepte für die Untersuchung ...

Zsfassung in niederländ. Sprache

This paper analyses revisions of Swiss current account data, taking into account the actual data revision process and the implied types of revisions. In addition we investigate whether the first release of current account data can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. An answer in the affirmative indicates that it is possible to improve first releases and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy.

Seasonality in economic time series can "obscure" movements of other components in a series that are operationally more important for economic and econometric analyses. In practice, one often prefers to work with seasonally adjusted data to assess the current state of the economy and its future course. This book presents a seasonal adjustment program called CAMPLET, an acronym of its tuning parameters, which consists of a simple adaptive procedure to extract the seasonal and the non-seasonal component from an observed series. Once this process is carried out, there will be no need to revise these components at a later stage when new observations become available. The authors describe the main features of CAMPLET, evaluate the outcomes of CAMPLET and X-13ARIMA-SEATS in a controlled simulation framework using a variety of data generating processes, and illustrate CAMPLET and X-13ARIMA-SEATS with three time series: US non-farm payroll employment, operational income of Ahold and real GDP in the Netherlands. Furthermore they show how CAMPLET performs under the COVID-19 crisis, and its attractiveness in dealing with daily data. This book appeals to scholars and students of econometrics and statistics, interested in the application of statistical methods for empirical economic modeling.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the implementation of the minimum level of protection against the loss of the home that arises from Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights in the Netherlands. The paper focuses on anti-social behaviour related cases in which the landlord requests the court to issue an eviction order. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on a statistical analysis of nearly 250 judgements concerning housing related anti-social behaviour. Findings A significant difference is found in the court's attitude against drug related anti-social behaviour and other types of nuisance. Moreover, it is found that in two-thirds of the cases the tenant advanced a proportionality defence. Although the European Court stresses the need of a proportionality check, Dutch courts ignore the tenant's proportionality defence in 10% of the cases and issue an eviction order in the majority of all cases. Advancing a proportionality defence does not result in any difference for the court decision. Originality/value The paper presents original data on the legal protection against eviction in cases concerning anti-social behaviour. This is the first study that analyses the approach towards housing related anti-social behaviour in the context of the European minimum level of protection. Whilst centred on legislation and procedures in the Netherland its findings and discussion are relevant in other jurisdictions facing similar issues.